Ye, Qiquan: China needs a deep solution to integrate its three political powers.

The moderate elites within China’s political system unanimously oppose the idea of ​​China unifying Taiwan by force. Their opposition stems from their fears, including: China’s overall national strength is insufficient to counter the US bloc; the involvement of Japan and South Korea would drag China into a prolonged period of economic depletion; continued resistance from the Taiwanese people would cause China to suffer long-term losses; and the forceful unification of Taiwan would set back China’s development. However, Ye, Qiquan holds a completely opposite view. Ye argues that China’s overall national war capability will have surpassed that of the United States by 2022; Japan and South Korea, while initially likely participants in a Sino-US war, will inevitably join China’s camp in the later stages; forceful unification is a shortcut to quickly establishing a new East Asian order; this new East Asian order is the cornerstone of the Sino-Asian empire; it is the cornerstone that forces the United States to choose the “North American-East Asian axis”; establishing the next generation of world order inevitably involves a period of chaos; the Taiwan base, the new East Asian order, and China’s forceful unification action are key to shortening this chaotic period; and compared to other options, the “North American-East Asian axis” is more readily accepted by the Americans.

Since 2003, Hong Kong people have gained considerable short-term political benefits from the central government through large-scale political marches. These benefits have encouraged the inertia and enthusiasm of Hong Kong people in organizing large-scale marches. However, these actions have seriously damaged Hong Kong’s political and economic prospects. Hong Kong’s political and economic decline is inevitable. The probability of Hong Kong continuing under “two systems” or “autonomy” after 2047 is close to zero. The probability of Hong Kong being divided into three or more parts by 2047 is close to 100%. Stubborn or hardline anti-central government forces will face “inconsistent treatment.”

China’s three major political forces—the Confucian tradition, the military, and the deep state—are all currently facing difficulties. A clear understanding of their respective power bases and practical shortcomings is the foundation for them to find a way out of their predicament.

In the Russo-Ukrainian War, the United States held the greatest influence in determining the ceasefire lines, although Russia, Western Europe, and China were also significant background factors. Theoretically, there were three ceasefire lines. The first was the geographical boundary line along the Dnieper River and the Black Sea coastline, which could also be defined as the western border of the battlefield. The second was the complete administrative border of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, which also served as the eastern border of the war. The third set of ceasefire lines consisted of arbitrary arcs drawn across a vast area between the western border line L1 and the eastern border line L2. If the US seeks only limited results in this Russo-Ukrainian war and does not want to directly involve more countries, it will have sufficient initiative to draw a stable ceasefire line somewhere along the L1, L2, or even L3 lines. For Russia, a ceasefire along the L1 and L2 lines offers a more certain prospect compared to the uncertainty of the L3 line. Ukraine is unwilling to accept the L1 line. However, Ukraine has no say in the continuation of the war or the ceasefire. The possibility of the L1 line persists because it will not harm US strategic interests. The primary reason for the possibility of the L2 line persists is the overwhelming US advantage on Ukrainian soil. The second major reason is that a ceasefire along the L2 line would not lead to a major political defeat for Russia. The third major reason is that China would support this line.

(Research Outline) Preview Date Mar. 29, 2023 Updated Date September 9, 2023   summary: The United States and its allies have multiple response plans in place to counter China’s potential military actions across the Taiwan Strait in 2026. These plans all aim to minimize political losses and prevent China from further expanding its political gains….

Abstract: Li Ka-shing’s “Huangtai melon” advertisement was intended to extricate himself from the political turmoil and shirk responsibility. However, this advertisement is expected to bring unexpected consequences and have serious long-term effects. The Li Ka-shing family’s industrial capital will inevitably gradually withdraw from mainland China. This will also inevitably drive up the operating costs of the Li family’s capital in Hong Kong. The Li family will inevitably have to spend a significant amount of extra resources to rely on other political powers. In this process, the Li family’s power will inevitably gradually weaken. Once Li Ka-shing loses control of his capital, his capital group will inevitably rapidly split, fragment, and even disappear.