| Metapolitica | Political Forecasting and In-Depth Studies Vol.1(2) Apr. 2026 |
The Concept of Empire and Its Constituent Elements
Ye Qiquan
| Publication Date | October 29, 2024 | Updated | September 23, 2025 | Thursday, March 26, 2026 |
| Citation Format: (APA) | |
| Ye Qiquan. (2026). The Concept of Empire and Its Constituent Elements. Political Forecasting and In-Depth Studies. April 2026. Vol. 1(2), 58-66.
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| Abstract: An empire is both a sovereign state and a guiding force in regional or even global political order. The establishment or emergence of an imperial order depends on the overall potential energy (Potentium) held by a center of power (the empire itself), which far exceeds that of surrounding powers. An imperial order is not the result of emotional or preferential choices, but rather an inevitable political order established on the basis of this overall potential energy differential. Intuitively, the establishment of an empire relies on the sustained efforts of successive generations of citizens and national heroes. However, a philosophical examination of the elements constituting an empire reveals that its establishment is influenced by a series of factors. Among these, the Earth’s total primary productivity and the cost of maintaining human homeostasis constitute humanity’s regional constant wealth. Human creativity constitutes the variable component of humanity’s regional wealth. Economic mobilization capacity, meanwhile, reflects humanity’s ability to utilize wealth to enhance its overall war-fighting capability. Just as the process of competition and warfare for the best ecological niches within Earth’s ecosystem never ceases, the challenges and suppression, decline and emergence of imperial order are also processes that will never cease. Empires forever follow a cyclical process of preparation, rise, maintenance, decline, and the rise and decline of their incapacitation. | |
| Keywords: | |
| Empire; Impire-breeding Belt; Overall Competitiveness; Overall War Capability; Global Primary Productivity; Homeothermy Cost; Creativity; Social System; Economancy; | |
I. Introduction and Concepts
An empire is both a power entity and the dominant force shaping regional order. In essence, an empire is a power that, within a certain sphere of influence, dominates or guides a region’s political order by employing its outstanding total power (potentium). From a rational perspective, imperial order does not depend on human choice or emotional inclinations; it is a political order that naturally emerges from power disparities.Leveraging a gap in “overall competitiveness” or “overall war-fighting capability” that far exceeds that of its neighboring states, an empire forcibly implements resource allocation schemes, taxation schemes, economic pricing authority, economic adjudication authority, and political operational order that serve its own interests. It also selects the lowest-cost option to maintain the operation of this entire system.
Potentium (Potentium): At the core of the above definition lies the concept of “overall potentium.” This refers to the overall power disparity that a central state possesses relative to its neighboring states. This power disparity serves as the fundamental driving force enabling the central state to dominate regional or even global order. It is a structural, stable, and long-term power disparity—not a short-term, volatile indicator.
This overall potentium is a relative value—it represents the power disparity when compared to neighboring states. However, its measurement and calculation are grounded in the absolute values of national power. When assessing a state’s overall power, two political science concepts—overall competitiveness and overall war-fighting capability—must be introduced.
Overall Competitiveness: The maximum comprehensive capability demonstrated by a group when competing for an ecological niche within the Earth’s ecosystem constitutes its overall competitiveness. This applies regardless of whether the group consists of plants, animals, humans, human subgroups, small communities, political communities, or even alliances of nations. The competitive landscape encompasses interactions between biological phyla, between biological populations, within species, between different human subgroups, between different nations, or within a single nation.
Total War Capability: Modern scholars and politicians prefer to use the more misleading term “overall competitiveness.”From a Metapolitica perspective, Ye Qiquan views the process of ecological niche competition between species as a long-term, continuous, and never-ending war. From a philosophical standpoint, the essence of overall competitiveness and overall war capability is consistent. That is, the most intuitive and authentic manifestation of a nation’s or alliance’s overall competitiveness is its overall war capability. Overall war capability can be calculated using the indicators “Nation War Strength” or “Group War Strength.”
Nation War Strength: A metric for measuring a nation’s total war capability. It breaks down a nation’s total war capability into four key components: geographical factors, political factors, economic factors, and the state of war.
Military Group War Strength: A metric for measuring the overall war capability of a military alliance. It calculates the contribution of each ally to the alliance’s overall war capability by assessing the varying degrees of participation in warfare among different allies within the alliance, based on the prevailing political situation. This allows for the estimation of the military alliance’s overall war strength.
Based on the 2022 Nation War Strength and Group War Strength data, Ye Qiquan made a series of predictions regarding the war in Ukraine in April, May, and June 2022.These predictions included: the war in Ukraine would remain deadlocked between the L1 and L2 lines for an extended period; the war would not end before the end of 2026; Russia would not suffer a major military defeat before the end of 2026; and Ukraine’s neighboring countries would deploy armed forces into Ukraine. Although these predictions were rejected by a series of political journals at the time, they have been validated by the course of the war over the past four years.Had the relevant nations and blocs heeded Ye Qiquan’s prophecies at the time, Europe as a whole could have saved at least hundreds of billions of dollars in wasted expenditures and avoided the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives.
The Cycle of Imperial Rise and Fall: The operation of the human imperial order follows the same laws as the competition for ecological niches within the Earth’s ecosystem. Competition for ecological niches within the Earth’s ecosystem is an ongoing process that will never cease.The human imperial order also follows this law. Resistance and challenges to the imperial order will always exist, and the process of suppressing these challenges will never cease. No functioning empire will last forever. Once a group surpasses the existing empire in overall competitiveness, it will inevitably become the主体 of the new imperial order. The rise and fall of any empire must inevitably go through the stages of preparation, rise, maintenance, decline, and collapse.
Elements of Empire-Building: Observing the process of empire-building from a Metapolitica perspective reveals that empire-building rests on a unique foundation. At least three fundamental elements (which can be broken down into four) influence the formation of empires. Based on these foundational factors, nearly all of the most significant empires in human history have emerged concentrated within a specific geographical region on Earth. We can designate this unique geographical zone as the “Empire-Breeding Belt.”
By examining the Empire-Breeding Belt, we can identify at least three fundamental factors that determine whether a region or nation possesses the potential to develop into an empire. These are: Global Primary Productivity; Homeothermy Cost; and Creativity. The first two factors constitute the Geoenergetic Constant Wealth component of human society, while Creativity constitutes the Fluctuating Wealth component.
Within the creativity category, there is a specific component called “Economancy” that significantly influences the expression of war-making capacity; it can be separated from creativity to form a fourth category.
The essence of dividing the elements of empire-building from three categories into four is to distinguish the war-making capacity of human groups into two levels. The first level is the accumulation of total wealth. The second level is the utilization of total wealth.
Economancy: A nation’s ability to mobilize, control, and direct economic power. It is a nation’s capacity to mobilize, command, and integrate its national economic power through its institutional structures. Social institutions are the fundamental factors influencing a nation’s Economancy. Additionally, different governmental structures—and even different leaders—can exert a certain degree of influence on a nation’s Economancy.
In the process of human societies accumulating social wealth, two distinct pathways of wealth accumulation emerge. These are the animalistic wealth pathway (war-based wealth pathway) and the vegetative wealth pathway (production-based wealth pathway).
Animalistic (War-Based) Path of Wealth: After animals evolved within the Earth’s biosphere, a new, efficient pathway harnessing chemical energy emerged. This is the path of war and plunder.Through the path of war, animals directly plunder the chemical energy possessed by other species. War and plunder are the sole means of survival for animal life forms. Similarly, this was the sole path to survival for hominids and early Homo sapiens. Different animals face constant and endless war pressures as they compete for the optimal ecological niches within the biosphere. It was the persistent genetic pressure of survival and extinction that drove Homo sapiens to gradually occupy the optimal ecological niches within the Earth’s biosphere.
After securing the optimal ecological niche within the Earth’s ecosystem, war became an indispensable and natural means for humans to compete for and allocate internal ecological positions. That is, war continued to serve a function, becoming a customary path for human groups to acquire wealth.
The Plant-Based (Productive) Path to Wealth: Before animals evolved within the Earth’s ecosystem, production and synthesis were the sole means and pathways for acquiring chemical energy.That is, through the evolution of diverse pathways, organisms utilized exogenous resources (solar waves and rays) and endogenous resources (Earth’s mineral resources) to synthesize chemical energy, thereby sustaining individual growth and ensuring species reproduction. Even after animals evolved within the Earth’s ecosystem, the synthesis and utilization of solar resources remained the foundation for the smooth functioning of the Earth’s ecosystem.
II. Global Primary Productivity
Due to the curvature of the Earth and the angle of its axis, the distribution of solar radiation on the Earth’s surface is uneven. This leads to variations in the abundance of terrestrial carbon resources across the Earth’s landmasses. This is the reason for the regional differences in “Global Primary Productivity.” Global Primary Productivity not only determines the differences in carbon resource abundance across different geographic regions but also serves as the foundation for variations in subsequent production resources and means of production within those regions.
The statistical chart above clearly shows that within the region between 15° and 55° north latitude, there is no statistically significant difference in the abundance of Global Primary Productivity.
When considering Global Primary Productivity as a standalone factor, the geographical region most conducive to the development of empires is the area between 23.3°N and 23.3°S, rather than the region between 23.3°N and 45°N.
III. Homeothermy Cost
As a primary resource bestowed by the sun upon Earth, Global Primary Productivity relies on human labor to be transformed into human wealth.
Maintaining a relatively constant body temperature during the production process is a mandatory requirement for humans. The cost of homeothermy determines the efficiency of converting wealth based on primary productivity resources.
The regions on either side of the Earth’s 20°C annual average temperature line offer the most suitable climate for human life and labor. Within this zone, the cost of maintaining a constant body temperature is lowest. That is, the amount of social wealth wasted due to homeothermy costs is minimal.
This 20°C annual average temperature line on Earth lies precisely between 23.3°N and 45°N.
IV. Creativity
Creativity refers to humanity’s comprehensive ability to transform the natural environment. These social capabilities ultimately manifest in a nation’s overall competitiveness or overall military capability.
Human sub-groups in different geographical regions do not develop synchronously in terms of creativity. This is the underlying reason why countries within the same geographical region exhibit inconsistent and unsynchronized overall competitiveness.
[Note: The core of Europe is, in fact, far removed from the “Empire Development Belt.” Over the past few centuries, Europe leveraged its advantage in “creativity” not only to offset its “thermoregulatory cost disadvantage” but also to achieve a high level of overall competitiveness, thereby establishing the European Empire. However, once other populations within the “Empire Development Belt” catch up to Europe in terms of creativity, Europe will inevitably enter an imperial
decline. Ye Qiquan believes that Europe officially entered its decline cycle in 2022. He even predicts that Europe’s decline cycle may last as long as 200 years or even longer (Ye Qiquan, 2022; 2024; 2025).】
V. Economancy
Within the category of creativity, there is a distinct form of creativity that can be termed “Economancy.” It refers to the unique ability of a nation, tribe, or political community—through its state institutions—to mobilize, direct, concentrate, and integrate the economic forces of the entire society. In essence, it is the capacity of a state’s administrative system to enhance its overall war-fighting capability.
In terms of its nature, Economancy, as a capability of the state, falls within the category of creativity. Because its impact on the state’s overall war-fighting capability is particularly significant, we can single it out as a crucial factor influencing the process of empire-building.
Using a nation’s “Economancy” as an indicator, Ye Qiquan broadly categorizes human social systems into “equalitarian societies,” “unitary societies,” “feudal societies,” and “centralized societies.”
In Ye Qiquan’s “Nation War Strength Calculation System,” when assigning values, the Economancy index for absolute monarchies is set at the highest level, followed by socialist states, monarchically dominated states, presidential systems, semi-presidential systems, and parliamentary systems.
Summary
An empire is both a sovereign state and a guiding force for regional or even global political order. The establishment or emergence of an imperial order depends on a power center (the empire itself) possessing an overall potentium (Potentium) that far exceeds that of surrounding powers. The imperial order is not the result of emotional or preferential choices, but rather an inevitable political order established based on overall potentium.Intuitively, the establishment of an empire relies on the sustained efforts of successive generations of citizens and national heroes. However, when examining the elements of empire-building from a philosophical perspective, one finds that the establishment of an empire is influenced by a series of factors. Among these, Global Primary Productivity and Homeothermy Cost constitute humanity’s constant regional wealth.Creativity constitutes the variable wealth component of humanity. Economancy, meanwhile, embodies humanity’s capacity to utilize wealth to enhance its overall war-fighting capability. Just as the competitive/warfare process for the best ecological niches within the Earth’s biosphere never ceases, the challenges and suppression, decline and emergence of imperial order are also processes that never cease. Empires perpetually follow a cyclical process of preparation, rise, maintenance, decline, and the rise and decline of incapacitation.
References
Ye Qiquan. (2022). Whose War? Players winning or losing in the Russia-Ukraine War. Google Blogger. Sep. 14, 2022. https://destinedfating.blogspot.com/2022/09/whose-war-players-winning-or-losing-in.html. Archived on September 14, 2022.
Ye Qiquan. (2024). Preface II: A Letter to Europeans 100 Years from Now. In The Nature of War and National War Capabilities. November 2024. 1st ed. Canadian Philosophy and Science Press. Toronto.
Ye Qiquan. (2025). B5eu: Europe Will Suffer for 200 Years (PC Version). YouTube. Feb. 2, 2025. https://youtu.be/6MdRs4-mnsU
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Ye Qiqian reserves all copyrights to his political predictions, original concepts, and articles. Any citation, derivation, extension, or adaptation must comply with applicable laws. Ye Qiqian’s Special Statement: The copyright for political predictions, original concepts, and articles related to Europe shall be retained for 200 years, rather than the duration specified by current laws. |
| Journal Mission
*Political Forecasting and Insight* is an interdisciplinary academic journal dedicated to long-term political forecasting, long-cycle geopolitical research, theories of empire-building, the fundamental laws of warfare, and the profound connections between philosophical logic and the interplay of geopolitics, geography, and history. The journal emphasizes depth, foresight, and innovation in its content; it does not prioritize traditional academic formatting as the primary criterion for evaluation, but rather focuses on the originality of ideas, insight, and theoretical contributions. The journal pays particular attention to “outsiders” who possess political insight, philosophical intuition, and strategic thinking. Historical experience shows that many non-institutional researchers often achieve greater success in political forecasting and strategic judgment than large think tanks, national intelligence agencies, and policy-making systems. The journal is committed to discovering, presenting, and preserving these valuable intellectual achievements so that they are not lost. One of the journal’s founding objectives is to provide professional researchers, academic institutions, and policy analysts with a formal, citable publication, enabling relevant ideas, theories, and forecasts to be cited, disseminated, and retrieved in a standardized bibliographic format.
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| Transliteration of the name Ye Qiquan
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| Arabic | يي راعي الينبوع | Hebrew | יה צ’יקואן |
| Chinese | Ye Qiquan | Italian | Ye Chichen |
| German | Ye Tschi-Quan | Japanese | 葉 其泉（は きせん） |
| English | Ye Qiquan | Korean | 예 치천 (Ye Qiquan) |
| Spanish | Ye Chicuán | Russian | Е Чицюань |
| French | Ye Chiquan | ||
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