September 15, 2026, can be considered a watershed and a critical juncture. Whether mainland China conducts military reunification operations before or after this date will have significantly different political and historical consequences. This critical juncture is crucial not only for mainland China but also for the Asian and world order, and has significant implications for a range of related countries.
The outline is complete. The full content will be published after September 15, 2026.
(This is an outline for an incomplete research project.) Preview Date Mar. 29, 2023 Updated Date September 8, 2023 summary: South Korea is an unavoidable party in the script of the US-China conflict. It is a major member of the US-led alliance and a key participant in the early and low-level conflicts. However, South…
China’s three major political forces—the Confucian tradition, the military, and the deep state—are all currently facing difficulties. A clear understanding of their respective power bases and practical shortcomings is the foundation for them to find a way out of their predicament.
summary: October 9, 2019, an important day. Some reminded Taiwan that “one country, two systems” was drifting away from Taiwan. It was hoped they would fight for it themselves rather than oppose it. August 10, 2022, an even more important day. The mainland officially declared that “one country, two systems” in de facto no…
Since 2003, Hong Kong people have gained considerable short-term political benefits from the central government through large-scale political marches. These benefits have encouraged the inertia and enthusiasm of Hong Kong people in organizing large-scale marches. However, these actions have seriously damaged Hong Kong’s political and economic prospects. Hong Kong’s political and economic decline is inevitable. The probability of Hong Kong continuing under “two systems” or “autonomy” after 2047 is close to zero. The probability of Hong Kong being divided into three or more parts by 2047 is close to 100%. Stubborn or hardline anti-central government forces will face “inconsistent treatment.”
Preview Date Mar. 29, 2023 Updated Date September 8, 2023 (This is an outline of an incomplete research project.) summary: If China launches a cross-Taiwan military operation in 2026, the United States will find it difficult to respond appropriately. Mainland China possesses a clear military advantage in areas covered by intermediate-range ballistic missiles, as…
(Research Outline) summary: The United States theoretically has five response plans to China’s actions toward reunification across the Taiwan Strait: two pre-emptive plans and three post-emptive plans. Theoretically, the pre-emptive plans, whether through negotiation or deterrence, can achieve relatively ideal results. However, in practice, given the political system of the US-West Asia alliance, the two…