Prediction: Hong Kong’s political structure after 2047

By：叶 其泉

Long-Term Forecasting: Political Forecasting and In-Depth Analysis, Volume 1, Issue 1, February 2026

Prediction: Hong Kong’s political structure after 2047

Ye Qiquan

First release date: Friday, February 13, 2026


Reference data: (APA)
Ye Qiquan. (2026). Hong Kong Prediction: Political Structure After 2047. Political Prediction and In-Depth Analysis. 2026. Vol. 1(1), 8-9.
Abstract: Since 2012, Ye Qiquan has argued that Hong Kong faces the risk of shrinking “two systems” space. Ye believes that after 2047, the probability of Hong Kong maintaining “two systems” space or “substantive autonomy” is close to zero. The current Hong Kong Special Administrative Region will be divided into three provincial-level administrative units and one sub-provincial-level administrative unit. This basic structure will provide the Chinese central government with sufficient space to govern Hong Kong. The interaction between the central government and Hong Kong locals at that time will also affect the specific setup and configuration of the sub-provincial-level administrative region, the “New Territories Southern District.” The article provides different prediction details for personal and corporate versions.

Keywords: prediction; Hong Kong; 2047; one country, two systems; administrative division; provincial-level administrative region; sub-provincial-level administrative region

In 2014, I briefly predicted that Hong Kong might lose its “two systems space” or “substantive autonomy” after 2047. This article summarizes my previous scattered thoughts. The main theme can be titled “Hong Kong’s Political Model After 2047,” or “Hong Kong’s Two Systems Space After 2047.” The key points are as follows:

  1. Hong Kong may retain the name, title, or political definition of “two systems,” but “the political space for Hong Kong to continue to retain substantive two systems, or substantive autonomy, after 2047 is close to zero.”
  2. Hong Kong’s overall political space has shrunk, and its economy has also contracted.
  3. It is highly likely that Hong Kong will have three provincial-level administrative units: “Hong Kong Island,” “Kowloon,” and “New Territories.” The names may differ, but the administrative divisions will largely follow the scheme shown in the attached map.
  4. Another major feature of the new Hong Kong administrative divisions is the creation of a “sub-provincial New Territories Southern District” within the “New Territories Provincial Administrative Region” (the name may differ; its administrative rank is lower than that of a provincial administrative region, roughly equivalent to a current “sub-provincial administrative region,” or a “city with independent planning status,” or a “special autonomous prefecture” in China). (At the same time, the actual geographical area, political rank, and economic and financial level of this “New Territories Southern District” were closely related to the degree of interaction between the central government and the people of Hong Kong at that time.) In other words, the future of the “New Territories Southern District” depended on:

A. The degree of obedience of Hong Kong people to the central government; B. The degree of liking or disliking of Hong Kong people by the central government; C. The degree of toughness of the central government at the time.

  1. The coexistence of multiple administrative districts provides the central government with ample political maneuvering space to win over the hearts and minds of Hong Kong people.

The central government’s overall attitude toward Hong Kong was also closely related to China’s position in the world order at that time.

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