Israel’s National and State Strategic Crisis

Political Prediction and Reality

Political Forecasting and In-Depth Analysis, Volume 1, Issue 2, April 2026

                        

Israel’s National and State Strategic Crisis

Ye Qiquan

 

Reference data element: (APA)

Ye Qiquan. (2026). Israel’s National and State Strategic Crisis. Political Prediction and In-Depth Analysis. April 2026. Vol. 1 (2), 35-39.

summary: In the more than 70 years since the establishment of the State of Israel, the people have continuously waged wars and achieved victories. These continuous victories easily lead to the conclusion that Israel possesses not only regional competitive advantages but also global competitive advantages. These overall competitive advantages (overall war capability advantages) are the foundation for ensuring the existence of the State of Israel and will continue to guarantee its existence in the future. However, Ye Qiquan, known as “Madman Ye,” offers a different narrative from the perspective of scientific philosophy. He believes that Israel faces a crisis in rethinking its long-term national and state strategies. In the near future, key elements guaranteeing and maintaining the existence of the State of Israel will face challenges. The Israelis need to deeply consider the potential crises they may face.

Keywords:
Israel; national strategy; state strategy; geopolitics; geostrategic value; imperial order; US-China conflict;

I. Fundamental Factors of the Re-establishment of Israel

Supported by the current mainstream interpretation and narrative, a theory, or even a doctrine, has long existed: the foundation of the re-establishment of Israel lies in the protection of human rights by European countries (including the United States; unless otherwise specified, the following references to European countries, European empires, the European imperial order, or the American imperial order all include the United States and Western European countries), and the relentless pursuit of the re-establishment of the Israeli people.

However, when analyzing historical facts from the perspective of scientific philosophy, the above narrative can be considered incomplete and a highly misleading hypothesis.

From the perspectives of niche competition, internal niche competition, and imperial order, we can find that the success of Israel’s re-establishment depended on the following factors.

1.1 Geostrategic Needs

Geostrategic needs

From the perspective of empire building and the maintenance of imperial order, World War I, World War II, and the post-war world order adjustment can be regarded as a process of internal niche competition and adjustment within European empires.

When European empires modified or adjusted the imperial order, they had a significant objective need: to protect their overall competitiveness. This meant striving to maintain the maximum power coverage and the greatest possible potential energy difference in overall competitiveness. To achieve this, it was necessary to suppress the greatest potential imperial competitors, specifically preventing the Arab nation and state from forming a unified political entity, a political community, or an effective political cooperative body.

Security needs of the frontier

During the era of global colonialism, the British Empire discovered a crucial fact: ruling and governing Arab regions required incurring significantly higher costs than in South Asia, Africa, and Oceania. The Arabs possessed formidable resistance and military capabilities. Furthermore, the Arab region bordered the heart of Europe. Expanding the strategic buffer zone around Europe, or pushing forward to protect European frontier bases, became a long-term strategic necessity for European empires.

1.2 Geostrategic Value

Geostrategic pivot

To fulfill the strategic needs of protecting and maintaining the European empire, establishing a strategic buffer point was extremely important. The area adjacent to the Suez Canal was such an extremely important strategic buffer point. It was not only a strategic frontier for protecting the core of Europe, but also the most important geopolitical node for dividing Arab forces into discontinuous regions.

Historical and cultural fulcrum

Jerusalem’s historical origins provide historical legitimacy for deploying key forces in key locations.

The slogan of saving the Israelis, saving a suffering nation, provided political legitimacy for deploying key forces in key locations.

National strength fulcrum

Even within the Middle East, the pursuit of nation-states was not limited to the Israelis. The European imperial bloc’s choice to support Israeli statehood rather than other nations was also significantly influenced by the Israelis’ own strength.

Before World War II, Israelis were widely known for their ability to dominate the economy. Their organizational skills and high level of education were also widely recognized. These key elements of collective competitiveness allowed Israelis to stand out from a pool of candidates.

The fundamental factors for the survival of the Israeli state

2.1 Overall Competitiveness Factors (Overall War Capability)

Before the establishment of Israel, the Israeli people had been wandering for over a thousand years. Furthermore, Israel was not the only nation in the Middle East actively seeking to establish its own state. The overall competitive advantage honed by the Israeli people through historical trials is an important and undeniable factor.

Thanks to its overall competitive advantage, Israel achieved victories in a series of wars. This is one of the fundamental factors that has enabled Israel to continue to exist as a newly emerging nation.

2.2 Geostrategic Value

In the continuous wars following the establishment of the State of Israel, the Israelis achieved repeated victories. Based on this political reality, it’s easy to conclude that the Israelis and the State of Israel possess an undeniable overall competitive advantage within the geopolitical region. Moreover, it’s evident that the vast majority of political observers, politicians, and most nations, including the Israelis themselves, have become deeply entrenched in this narrative.

However, Ye Qiquan challenges this mainstream narrative assumption. He argues that the State of Israel has never achieved the status of an independent political entity. Its continued existence is based on another political reality: that the State of Israel has always existed as part of a political (or military) alliance.

In other words, the existence of the State of Israel depends entirely (or at least primarily) on its geopolitical importance. The primary force sustaining its existence is not the overall competitiveness of the Israelis or the State of Israel, but rather the overall competitive advantage of the union.

2.3 Pillars of Imperial Order

Not only does Israel possess extremely important geopolitical value as a nation-state, but it has also repeatedly and directly participated in actions aimed at maintaining the American imperial order.

The State of Israel is an important tool in the current imperial order for containing Iranian power.

Israel is a key instrument in creating or constructing the current political reality in Syria.

Israel has also actively participated in the political processes related to ISIS, Libya, and Iraq.

A comprehensive analysis of the United States’ military deployment reveals that the American imperial order relies on the effective operation of four military pillars: North American military bases, European military bases, East Asian military bases, and Israeli military bases. Clearly, Israel is a crucial pillar in maintaining the current imperial order.

III. Risks to the survival of the Israeli state

Undeniably, throughout Israel’s history since its establishment as a nation, the Israelis have consistently experienced war and consistently emerged victorious. Given this political reality, it is entirely natural for Israelis to be confident in their nation’s and country’s future.

From Ye Qiquan’s perspective, now is the time for Israelis to seriously consider their national and state strategies, as the very foundations of Israel’s state survival may face significant challenges.

The key factors supporting the survival of the Israeli state can be summarized as follows: geostrategic value, pillars of the imperial order, overall national competitiveness, and the overall competitiveness of the alliances. Each of these key factors is likely to face serious challenges, thus accumulating into a comprehensive crisis for the Israeli nation and state.

The Israelis may choose to ignore these risks. At least for now, they are not facing a major political crisis. If they are to be wary of their long-term strategy, they must now seriously consider the risks they face.

IV. Elements that sustain the existence of the Israeli state

Philosophical value

The stories of the Bible and the history of Jerusalem once served as a spiritual pillar for European intervention in the political order of the Middle East. The same God and the same spiritual pillar are a natural bond uniting the Israelis and Europeans.

However, Israelis must be aware of another political reality: the conflict between Judaism and Catholicism/Christianity is far greater than the conflict between Eastern Orthodoxy and Catholicism/Christianity. The philosophical values of Israelis and the Israeli state are influenced by a range of external factors, which could potentially weaken them rapidly.

Political quality

The political process after World War II clearly demonstrates a political fact: the Anglo-Saxons and Israelis are exceptionally adept at manipulating political issues to gain short-term political advantages.

The long-term experience of continuous victories may cause the Israelis to forget one of their weaknesses: a deficiency in their long-term strategic vision. They must address this weakness and change or improve upon it.

Global geostrategic value

Israelis must be keenly aware of a political trend: the significant geostrategic value they currently possess is not immutable. Numerous factors could impact this strategic value within political and military alliances. Israelis must address the crucial question: how to maintain the geostrategic value they currently hold.

Regional geostrategic value

Compared to its global geostrategic value, Israel’s regional geostrategic value is more vulnerable to shocks. Any factor that could alter the overall competitiveness of the alliance will inevitably affect Israel’s regional geostrategic value. With China’s impact on the overall competitiveness of the US-led alliance imminent, Israel’s regional geostrategic value is bound to fluctuate.

Overall competitiveness

The overall competitiveness of a nation is the foundation for ensuring the overall competitiveness of a nation-state. The competitiveness of Israelis in the economic and political spheres is globally recognized. This is a crucial factor guaranteeing the effective survival of the Israeli state.

However, there is a harsh reality that is absolutely difficult for Israelis to accept and believe: a significant component of Israel’s overall national competitiveness stems from the strength of its alliances. If the overall competitiveness of these alliances is weakened, Israelis must consider ways to compensate for the loss in overall competitiveness.

Cost-benefit balance

No one in the world denies or underestimates the talent and achievements of Israelis in the economic sphere. For nearly 80 years since the establishment of Israel, numerous idealists have devoted themselves wholeheartedly to the process of its re-establishment and to the preservation and development of the nation. This is one of the key factors contributing to Israel’s successful existence.

However, Israelis must recognize this risk: if the effort and reward remain mismatched for an extended period, the passion for idealism will inevitably fade. The number of selfless idealists will drastically decrease. Some idealists will turn to seeking new paths. Those who were once united on the same idealistic track will be once again divided. Especially for a people adept at calculating costs and benefits, there is a natural lack of the ability to maintain unwavering focus on idealism.

summary

In the more than 70 years since the establishment of the State of Israel, the people have continuously waged wars and achieved victories. These continuous victories easily lead to the conclusion that Israel possesses not only regional competitive advantages but also global competitive advantages. These overall competitive advantages (overall war capability advantages) are the foundation for ensuring the existence of the State of Israel and will continue to guarantee its existence in the future. However, Ye Qiquan, known as “Madman Ye,” offers a different narrative from the perspective of scientific philosophy. He believes that Israel faces a crisis in rethinking its long-term national and state strategies. In the near future, key elements guaranteeing and maintaining the existence of the State of Israel will face challenges. The Israelis need to deeply consider the potential crises they may face.

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