Historic Opportunity: Three Trump Cards China Can Play to Become a World Leader

Political Prediction and Reality Political Forecasting and In-Depth Analysis, Volume 1, Issue 2, April 2026

                        

Historic Opportunity: Three Trump Cards China Can Play to Become a World Leader

Ye Qiquan

 

Reference data element: (APA)
Ye Qiquan. (2026). Historical Opportunities: Three Trump Cards China Can Play to Become a World Leader. Political Forecast and In-Depth Analysis. April 2026. Volume 1 (2), 31-34.
Abstract: Under the current mainstream interpretation and narrative framework, China’s overall national competitiveness curve may intersect with that of the United States around 2050. This establishes the theoretical and philosophical basis for China’s choice to continue paying taxes. In another assessment system that transcends the current narrative, China is considered to have surpassed the United States in overall war capability as early as 2022. In this assessment system, China is believed to possess three major advantages: China’s superior overall war capability; China’s power to incite political chaos and territorial changes in Europe; and China’s trump card to force the United States to accept a “US-China axis” system. These three advantages constitute the ideological and philosophical basis for China’s challenge to the unilateral US imperial order.

 

Keywords:
Hard power; overall national war capability; national war intensity; military alliance war intensity; cost of war; operational-level war cost; strategic war cost; effective weapon range; imperial order; “US-China axis” scenario.

One key strength: the overall national war capability advantage.

According to the current mainstream narrative, China’s overall competitiveness or overall war capability may intersect with the US power curve around 2050. This makes Chinese politicians and military leaders, raised under the current mainstream narrative, lose the courage to challenge US authority. In this context, the US continuously imposing tariffs on China, and China continuously paying tariffs, is a reasonable political expectation and scenario.

But can the Chinese escape the soft power trap set by the Americans? Can they escape the current mainstream interpretation and narrative? Does a new approach truly exist that can assess a nation’s true overall competitiveness and overall war-fighting capabilities?

Of course, such a solution exists. One solution that is currently not useful is the “National War Intensity Calculation System” and the “Military Alliance War Intensity Calculation System” led by Ye Qiquan.

Based on this “National/Military Alliance Overall War Capability Calculation System,” Ye Qiquan made a series of predictions about the course of the war in Ukraine in April, May, and June of 2022. These predictions have been verified one by one over the past four years of war. These verified predictions include the following:

The war will not end or a valid ceasefire will be reached before the end of 2026;

B. The war will be protracted in the battlefield between the L1 and L2 lines for a long time;

C. Russia will not suffer a major military defeat before the end of 2026;

D. Ukraine’s neighboring countries will definitely send armed forces into the Ukrainian battlefield;

Other, more distant predictions remain to be verified by the course of history. If the major stakeholders at the time had followed Ye Qiquan’s predictions, Europe could have saved at least hundreds of billions of dollars in unspent spending and avoided hundreds of thousands of casualties and losses.

Based on the aforementioned “National/Military Alliance Overall War Capability Calculation System,” Ye Qiquan believes that as early as 2022, China’s overall war capability had already surpassed that of the United States.

The following are some key points for assessing China’s overall national war advantage.

  • Comprehensive overall war capability advantage

2022 National Overall War Capability Score: China 888.9 points; United States 820.6 points (Ye Qiquan, 2023; 2025).

  • The cost of campaign-level warfare in the United States is higher than that in China.

For detailed information, please refer to the relevant literature (Ye Qiquan, 2023; 2024).

  • The cost of strategic warfare in the United States is higher than that in China.

For detailed information, please refer to the relevant literature (Ye Qiquan, 2023; 2024).

  • US alliances cannot land on Chinese territory.

For detailed information, please refer to the relevant literature (Ye Qiquan, 2023; 2024).

  • Effective range advantage (area denial advantage)
  • Historical factors advantage

Within the territory currently under Chinese jurisdiction, a regional empire has long existed at its core. This empire’s core has persisted for approximately 3,000 years, forming a collective survival habit and philosophical logic deeply rooted in cultural inertia. In contrast, the cultural support and philosophical logic within the core of the American empire originate from European cultural inertia, survival logic, and war logic. This set of cultural inertia directly manifests as “dispersion, small-group mentality, and incompatibility with tribes.” These attributes tend to fragment an empire rather than unite it.

II. Political Trump Card: China’s Ability to Cause Chaos and Territorial Changes in Europe

China still maintains a clear political advantage over Europe. This overall advantage includes the following: 2.1 Europe was effectively expelled from the center of the imperial order in 2022 and is in a state of overall political weakness;

2.2 Europe is in a generally weak economic position and cannot gain political advantage through economic power;

2.3 China has the ability to incite political chaos in the heart of Europe;

2.4 The United States currently has no urgent political need to restore the “US-European axis”; restoring the “US-European axis” system does not meet the current economic needs of the United States.

2.5 The United States currently lacks sufficient political resources to woo Russia; in the competition to win over Russia, China currently holds a clear advantage.

2.6 From a 100-year strategic perspective, aligning with the China-centric approach is more in line with Russia’s century-long strategy than aligning with the US-centric approach; unless the US is willing to pay a significant political price in the near future.

The three trump cards: forcing the United States to accept the “US-China axis” proposal.

China’s current political goal is not to completely overthrow the American imperial order, but to force the United States to accept the “US-China axis” system.

From the US perspective, the psychological priority in choosing the next generation of imperial order is either “rebuilding the US-European axis” or establishing a new “US-Europe-Russia axis.” However, China currently possesses a decisive trump card: the option to completely overthrow the US imperial order. This is the greatest force compelling the US to accept a “US-China axis” system.

summary:

Under the current mainstream interpretation and narrative, China’s overall national competitiveness curve may intersect with that of the United States around 2050. This establishes the theoretical and philosophical basis for China’s choice to continue paying taxes. In another assessment system that departs from the current narrative, China is considered to have surpassed the United States in overall war capability as early as 2022. In this assessment system, China is believed to possess three major advantages: the advantage of overall national war capability; the power to incite political chaos and territorial changes in Europe; and the trump card to force the United States to accept a “US-China axis” system. These three advantages constitute the ideological and philosophical basis for China’s challenge to the unilateral US imperial order.

References

Ye, Qiquan. (2023). A model of national war strength, and a prediction of the course of the war in Ukraine. PPPNet. Dec. 7, 2023. https://pppnet.net/nation-war-strength-model-and-prediction/

Ye, Qiquan. (2023). China’s Unification Plan by Force (2): Variables for Both China and the US. PPPNet. Sep. 8, 2023. https://pppnet.net/chinas-unifying-plan-2-high-weight-variables-02/

Ye Qiquan. (2024). The Essential Attributes of War and National War Capacity. Ralph Press, Canada. 2024. First Edition. Toronto.

Ye Qiquan. (2025). Mathematical Model to Predict Wars. Saudi J. Humanities Soc. Sci. 2025. Vol 10 (5); 243-256.

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