Chinese Current Affairs Political Forecasting and In-Depth Analysis, Volume 1, Issue 3, August 2026 USA Beats China again and Wait the Next Win Ye Qiquan First release date: Saturday, May 16, 2026 (Published in advance) Reference data element: (APA) Ye Qiquan. (2026). The United States wins another game and awaits the next victory. Political…
Chinese Politics Political Forecasting and In-Depth Studies Vol 1 ( 3). Agu. 2026 Delaying China’s Unification: The U.S. Wins a Crucial Battle Ye Qiquan Publication Date: Sunday, April 12, 2026 Cite this article: (APA) Ye Qiquan.(2026). Delaying China’s Unification: The U.S. Wins a Crucial Battle. Political Forecasting and In-Depth Studies. Agu. 2026. Vol 1…
From the perspective of phenomena and realpolitik, Israelis possess not only regional competitive advantages but also global ones. These overall competitive advantages (overall war capability advantages) are the foundation for ensuring the existence of the Israeli state and for guaranteeing its continued existence. However, “Crazy Ye” (Ye Qiquan) proposes a different narrative. He believes that in the near future, key elements for guaranteeing and maintaining the existence of the Israeli state will face challenges. Israelis need to deeply consider the potential crises in their national and state strategies.
Under the current mainstream interpretations and narrative frameworks, China’s overall national competitiveness curve is projected to intersect with that of the United States around 2050. However, under an alternative assessment system that transcends these current narratives, China is deemed to have surpassed the United States in overall military capability as early as 2022. China is believed to hold three major trump cards: its advantage in overall national war-fighting capabilities; its power to trigger political turmoil and territorial changes in Europe; and its ultimate trump card—the ability to force the United States to accept a “U.S.-China Axis” system. These three advantages form the conceptual and philosophical foundation for China’s challenge to the unipolar U.S. imperial order.
Regarding the process of China’s unification, Ye Qiquan believes that the primary risk stems from Europe. Europe is, in fact, the political force in the world that harbors the strongest hostility toward China. Should a military conflict break out between China and the United States, Europe would not only face pressure to be drawn into the conflict against its will but would also have a powerful “endogenous impulse” to seek China’s complete defeat. Once Europe is able to rule out the likelihood of a major defeat, it may actively participate in a war against China. In contrast, China has consistently underestimated the hostility coming from Europe. This could lead to major flaws in China’s contingency plans. Should Europe join a war against China, it would not only force China to bear significant political costs during the conflict but also make it difficult for China to withstand political defeat in the post-war period. China’s strategy toward Europe should be closely aligned with its political objectives—namely, to effectively prevent Europe from becoming a production base for the United States’ war of attrition. China should pursue and compel the United States to accept a next-generation imperial order based on the blueprint of a “U.S.-China Axis.”
China’s three major political forces—the Confucian tradition, the military, and the deep state—are all currently facing difficulties. A clear understanding of their respective power bases and practical shortcomings is the foundation for them to find a way out of their predicament.
The announcement on July 1, 2025, could be termed the “July 1 Power Mechanism” or the “July 1 Power Transfer.” From then on, Chinese politics will enter a complex tripartite structure. Currently, all three parties are in trouble. The ruling faction (Xi Jinping’s group) still holds all the important metaphysical power; the military holds the actual power to stabilize the situation; and the background political forces effectively control the ruling power. Currently, none of these three parties is completely dead, nor is any completely alive. They all need to find a way out of their predicament.
The national security mechanism is not only a natural responsibility of Hong Kong people, but also an authority delegated to the Central Government to “govern Hong Kong with a hidden hand.” If Hong Kong people do not delegate this authority, they will be forcing the Central Government to govern Hong Kong with an “open hand.” Once the Central Government begins to govern Hong Kong with an “open hand,” it will signal a shrinking of the space for “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong. Moreover, this will directly threaten the continuation of “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong beyond 2047.
The Carrie Lam SAR government has effectively agreed to all five demands of the pro-democracy camp. Now, they may back down again, possibly agreeing to establish a special investigation team to investigate “police abuse of power.” If this is true, as reported, it would be tantamount to Lam’s “political suicide.” Even if Lam takes this step, it won’t actually help ease the situation in Hong Kong. The opposition’s fundamental goal isn’t the so-called demands, but rather to create long-term chaos in Hong Kong. What Lam needs is a calm mind and a sincere advisory team to help her. Chairman Mao once said, “When the key link is grasped, everything else falls into place.” Lam and her team need to learn politics and find a bottom line for their defense.
Abstract: Li Ka-shing’s “Huangtai melon” advertisement was intended to extricate himself from the political turmoil and shirk responsibility. However, this advertisement is expected to bring unexpected consequences and have serious long-term effects. The Li Ka-shing family’s industrial capital will inevitably gradually withdraw from mainland China. This will also inevitably drive up the operating costs of the Li family’s capital in Hong Kong. The Li family will inevitably have to spend a significant amount of extra resources to rely on other political powers. In this process, the Li family’s power will inevitably gradually weaken. Once Li Ka-shing loses control of his capital, his capital group will inevitably rapidly split, fragment, and even disappear.