First published on: October 27, 2022 on Google Blog
summary:
Whether it’s fighting or a ceasefire, the conflict will be confined to the eastern and western border walls until at least the end of 2026. The western border consists of the Dnieper River and part of the Black Sea coast. The eastern border wall is Dobas’s complete administrative border. The US and Russia have different levels of control over different areas between the two border walls.
concept:
Western Power Zone (Yellow)
Russia’s powerful control zone (dark blue Russia Power Zone)
Russia-dominated zone (bright blue Russia Predominate Zone)
Main Battle Zone 1 (Lake Blue)
Main Battle Zone 2 (light blue)
Secondary Battle Zone (light yellow-green)
The border wall in the Russo-Ukrainian War
Western border wall
Eastern boundary wall
content
In articles completed in April 2022 [1], May 2022[2], and June 2022[3], the author stated that both fighting and a ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian War would be limited by two solid border walls. The western border wall consists of the Dnepr River and part of the Black Sea coast (which the author has named the L1 line or the western border wall). The eastern border wall consists of the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donetsk (which the author has named the L2 line or the eastern border wall). Essentially, these two walls constitute the boundary between the combat zone and the ceasefire zone in the Russo-Ukrainian War. These two walls will remain functional until at least 2026. That is to say, Russia will not breach the western border wall until at least the end of 2026, and the United States will not be able to breach the eastern border wall. The US and Russia have different levels of control over the different areas between the two border walls.
The development of the Russia-Ukraine war in the coming years can be understood through the attached map.
Russia will have no chance of breaking through the yellow zone (marked as a zone under strong Western control).
The US group also had no chance of entering the deep blue zone marked as a Russian stronghold.
In the deep blue zone, including Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, Russia’s presence remains unshaken.
The blue zone is part of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, located south of the Dnepr River. Russia will firmly maintain its dominant position in this region.
(The northern regions of these two states are classified as the main war zone 1. This indicates that Russia’s control over the northern regions of these two states is weaker than that over the southern regions.)
The repeated fighting is likely to occur primarily in the Odessa and Mykolayev regions. The main objective is to control the Black Sea coast or monopolize Black Sea routes. Another area where repeated fighting will occur is the Dnipropetrovsk region. The Ukrainian army can exert significant pressure on Russia in this area. This large area is marked in light blue and designated as Main Theater 1.
Repeated fighting is also highly likely in the northern parts of these three states. The primary objective of the fighting in the north of these three states is to defend or seize the southern territories of these states. This area is marked with a slightly lighter blue as the main combat zone 2.
The yellow zone is essentially an area that Russia will be unable to access in the long term. Similarly, the dark blue zone is an area that the US consortium cannot breach. This situation will continue for a considerable period of time, at least until the end of 2026.
References:
1. Ye Qiquan. Conflict will remain confined to Central Ukraine until 2026. https://destinedfating.blogspot.com/2022/10/conflict-will-remain-confined-to.html
2. Ye Qiquan. Where will be ceasefire lines chosen in Ukrainian War. The submitted recept from Opinion Channel @guardian.co.uk. On April 26, 2022.
3. Ye Qiquan. Three Possible Ceasefire Lines of Russia-Ukraine War: Reality Basis, Opportunity, and Prospects. The submitted recept from International Security. On May 23, 2022.
4. Ye Qiquan. Three Possible Ceasefire Lines of Russia-Ukraine War: Reality Basis, Opportunity, and Prospects. https://destinedfating.blogspot.com/2022/09/three-possible-ceasefire-lines-of.html. Archived on September 18, 2022.
5.Ye Qiquan. Whose War? Players winning or losing in the Russia-Ukraine War. https://destinedfating.blogspot.com/2022/09/whose-war-players-winning-or-losing-in.html. Archived on September 14, 2022.