Submission history dated April 26, 2022
The original text has been lost. An unexpected commit record was discovered showing that the earliest prediction of a border wall in the Russia-Ukraine war was made on April 26, 2022. This date roughly corresponds to the end of the first phase of Russia’s special military operation. This commit record contains three key points.
Three key points:
1. Theoretically, there are three ceasefire lines.
(Isn’t it too early to predict a ceasefire at the very beginning of the war!) 1.1 The L1 line is defined by the Dnepr River. (The Black Sea coast was not discussed at that time). I only mentioned the Black Sea coast as part of the L1 ceasefire line on May 23, 2022. 1.2 The L2 line is the complete administrative border between Donetsk and Luhansk. 1.3 The L3 line is any ceasefire line located between the L1 and L2 lines.
2. The United States is the strongest force on the ceasefire issue.
2.1 It was pointed out at the time that the most powerful force in deciding whether and where to cease fire was the United States, not any other country (with specific exceptions for Russia, the EU, and China). 2.1 If the primary objective of the United States is to weaken Russia and the EU, and sever ties between them, the US will choose a relatively stable ceasefire line on either L1 or L2. 2.2 If the primary objective of the United States is to continuously weaken Russia and the EU, and to create prolonged instability in Europe, then the US will choose an unstable ceasefire line on L3.
3. India plays a very important role.
If India intervenes in this chaos, it will pose enormous risks to all parties involved and could even trigger World War III.
(What’s the basis for this prediction? I’m a bit confused now. But in a manuscript from May 23, 2022, I mentioned the following: If India turns around and joins the ranks of those sanctioning Russia, it will encourage the US to decouple from China. Then the US will be more confident in dividing the world into two parallel parts.)
Summary:
1. Both fighting and ceasefire will occur within the two closed walls (between lines L1 and L2). 2. There will be a ceasefire. 3. Ceasefires on the two border walls will be relatively stable. 4. Ceasefires between the two border walls will be unstable. 5. The decisive force on the battlefield will be the United States, not any other country. 6. The objectives of the war include weakening the EU, weakening Russia, and severing ties between the EU and Russia. 7. The objectives of the war do not preclude the US from continuing to weaken the EU and Russia, and maintaining a prolonged period of chaos in Europe. 8. India plays a significant role and could potentially trigger World War III. (Note: It is clear that I have significantly reduced India’s weighting since the submission on May 23, 2022. I don’t recall the basis for this judgment recently. Sorry!)
Note:
Regardless, my prediction that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be confined to L1 and L2 levels remains relevant. Of course, I’m becoming increasingly conservative, so in a recent post I added a time-limited adverb, “at least until the end of 2026.”
Predictions that the United States was committed to weakening the European Union have largely come true.