| First release date: | June 18, 2022 | Reissue date: | September 15, 2022 | February 11, 2023 |
summary:
Two clear losers, Ukraine and the EU, have emerged from the Russo-Ukrainian war. Overall, Europe has lost its status and prospects as a world power. Ukraine has lost control of more territory than before the war began. Worse still, it may lose the structural framework of the entire country. One clear winner is Russia, as it will stand firmly on its bottom line. This bottom line is formed by the intact borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Holding this bottom line makes Russia virtually invincible. The US bloc cannot and will not cross this eastern wall. The war has brought, and will continue to bring, more pressure to Russia’s geopolitical and economic situation, but all losses can be compensated for by Ukraine, and perhaps even more. The United States is currently the biggest winner. It has already reaped at least three tangible rewards, including weakening Europe, weakening Russia, and building a fortified Ukrainian trench to prevent Europe and Russia from drawing closer to each other for at least the next 50 years. The United States is also the most powerful force capable of deciding when and where to establish a final ceasefire. China has also gained much. However, if the United States intends to drag China into a large-scale war, not only will both China and the United States face enormous risks, but many other countries will also be embroiled in difficulties.
Due to China’s cross-strait reunification efforts, 2026 will be a key year for many other countries.
Keywords:
The Russo-Ukrainian War, the Ukrainian trenches, Taiwan, the United States, the US-China conflict, the reunification of Taiwan, the G2 era, colonized Europe, declining Europe, and China’s nuclear forces.
The concept of first release in the article
This article, a prediction about a potential war between Russia and Ukraine, is approximately 10,000 words long. The initial concept was conceived in April 2022, and the first draft was completed and submitted for publication on June 18, 2022. It was rejected multiple times by a series of prestigious political science journals throughout 2022. However, its main predictions have either been confirmed or are close to being confirmed. The main predictions and judgments of this article are as follows.
1. Russia is virtually invincible, at least until the end of 2026.
The war brought political and economic pressure to Russia, but all losses could be compensated for, and even more could be gained, from Ukraine. The US consortium could not cross the eastern border wall formed by the intact administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. This is the solid foundation upon which Russia remains invincible.
2. In reality, the Russo-Ukrainian War was a war that weakened Europe.
This war, known as the Russo-Ukrainian War, was in reality a war to divide and weaken Europe. A major objective and significant achievement of the war was the construction of a fortified Ukrainian trench. This trench would separate Russia from Europe and prevent them from drawing closer to each other for at least the next 50 years. Europe would suffer heavy economic and geopolitical losses.
3. Ukrainian trenches – a primary objective of the Russo-Ukrainian War.
A key objective and major achievement of the Russo-Ukrainian War was the establishment of a formidable trench, the Ukrainian trench. This trench will politically, economically, and geopolitically separate Russia from “Europe” for at least the next 50 years. Ukraine contributed itself to achieving this important goal.
4. Colonized Europe.
Viewing all European politicians as intellectually deficient is not statistically sound. However, Europe’s active involvement in a war that weakens itself defies political, historical, and philosophical principles. European politicians cannot be entirely unaware of this fact, yet no one can effectively oppose this process. Passively and forced into war to weaken itself, Europe, in every respect, is a colony of an empire.
5. Europe has lost its status and prospects as a top political power.
Europe should be the biggest loser in a Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Beyond economic and geopolitical losses, China will certainly abandon its 30-year policy of supporting Europe as a world pole to counterbalance US influence. Clearly, a colonized Europe will be a major burden for China in the event of a US-China conflict. More seriously, instigating, creating, promoting, participating in, and expanding chaos in Europe will become a powerful tool for China in dealing with high-level US-China conflicts. This option may even already be in its toolbox. Other countries have already abandoned any expectations or prospects of Europe becoming a major pillar of world politics.
6. The Somaliization of Ukraine.
If Ukraine (actually the US-led group) can gain any military advantage in central Ukraine, it will undoubtedly rely on two pillars. First, economic and military support from the US and Western Europe. Second, the deployment of troops by neighboring countries. These armed forces are the foundation for the Somaliization of Ukraine. This means that even if Ukraine “wins” on paper, it is still an absolute loser.
7. The Yugoslavization of Ukraine.
Once Russia gains the upper hand, it will inevitably establish multiple independent local regimes in Ukraine to resist the protracted war and economic pressure from the United States. This is the main reason for the Yugoslavization of Ukraine.
In another article submitted in May 2022, Ye Qiquan even stated bluntly that Russia might establish as many as seven local governments in Ukraine as a means of countering long-term military pressure from the United States.
8. Neighboring countries sent troops into Ukraine.
The local neighboring countries are among the few European nations that could benefit from the Russo-Ukrainian war. This is also the basis for the division of Europe. The arrival of these armed forces from neighboring countries will lay a solid foundation for Ukraine’s complete defeat.
9. At least until the end of 2026, the war will remain confined to the eastern and western borders.
This war will be confined to the eastern wall (the complete administrative border between the Donetsk and Luhansk regions) and the western wall (the Dnepr River basin plus part of the Black Sea coast). Russia cannot cross the western wall, and the US alliance cannot break through the eastern wall. A ceasefire will also occur between these two walls.
10. The United States is currently the biggest winner.
However, if the United States tries to drag China into a large-scale war, both sides will face the risk of failure.
11. China is another winner.
Russia is growing closer to China. This will make it easier for China to extend its influence to the five Central Asian countries. However, China also faces the risk of being drawn into an unwanted war.
12. China will launch a reunification campaign across the Taiwan Strait in 2026.
This action has far-reaching implications. It could affect the resolution of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the stability of Western Europe, and the global situation.
13. China’s nuclear forces
There is a five-stage simulation script for a potential US-China conflict. The author believes that by the end of 2025, China will definitely “leak” its credible nuclear force (generally around 3,000 nuclear warheads), thereby completely eliminating the nuclear option from the US-China conflict script.