(This is an outline for an incomplete research project.)
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Preview Date |
Mar. 29, 2023 |
Updated Date |
September 10, 2023 |
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summary:
Europe will inevitably be severely affected by the Asian war of 2026. Whether to intervene or avoid this war presents Europe with a dilemma. As a colony of the United States and the leading bloc of the US-led imperial order, avoiding this war is an extremely difficult process for Europe. It cannot appease public opinion in European countries, nor can it effectively stop China’s rapid expansion of power in the political and economic spheres. If Europe intervenes in this war, it will inevitably suffer a backlash from China, directly leading to the formal and complete restart of the European “border maneuvering” process. This will incite long-standing and profound European turmoil and a restructuring of European geopolitical power. Europe should have a correct understanding of its existing colonial situation and begin to prepare psychologically and mentally for shedding its colonial status. It should also view the Asian war of 2026 from a higher and more far-sighted perspective.
Keywords:
War 2026, Asian War, War 2022, European War, Borderline, Movement, NATO, Collective Defense Treaty
Part 1: The impact of a 2022 war on Europe
1.1 A war that weakened Europe
1.1.1 Weakening Europe
The war that began in February 2022 is, in fact, a war that weakens Europe. Its main result is the establishment of a solid “Ukrainian trench” [1]. The role of this trench is to divide Europe into two parts: “Europe” and “Russia”. This trench not only cuts off the economic and political support between the two sides, but also pushes the two sides into a vicious cycle of “hostility-consumption-more hostility-more consumption”.
1.1.2 Multiple Weakening Effects
(1. Europe and Russia have missed a crucial historical opportunity for “reconciliation and cooperation”;)
(2. Losing the historic opportunity to settle Sino-Russian oil and gas transactions in Euros;)
(3. Increase the economic operating costs for both Europe and Russia;)
(4. A prolonged period of chaos has emerged in the core region of Europe.)
(5. Depriving Russians of their “European” identity, planting a nuclear mine on Europe’s security and stability.)
1.2 Restarting the European border travel process
1.2.1 Uncovering the wounds of memory in the history of border crossings in Europe;
1.2.2 Forcing Russia to seek security boundaries. Geopolitical boundaries and psychological security boundaries;
1.2.3 Many countries have completed their psychological and political preparations to join the new border movement process;
1.2.4 China may promote, accelerate, or exacerbate this process.
1.3 Completely change China’s political strategy toward Europe
1.3.1 Europe fully possessed the characteristics of a “colony”;
1.3.2 Europe, with its colonial attributes, will become (or already has become) a huge burden on China, rather than the “pressure relief valve” that China hopes for;
1.3.3 Despite Europe’s impulse and even actual efforts to break free from American control, this cannot change the political fact that Europe is, in fact, a power bloc within the current imperial system. Europe and China are actually on opposing sides: “order maintainers” and “order opponents.”
1.3.4 Initiating chaos or a process of power disintegration in Europe is a crucial step in preventing European intervention in the Asian theater;
1.3.5 Weakening Europe is a key step in weakening the United States’ alliance’s ability to wage a sustained (long-term) war;
Part Two: The Impact of Asian Wars in 2026 on Europe
2.1. Promoting and intensifying the process of border mobility in Europe
If the European war in 2022 restarted the historical process of European border maneuvering, then the Asian war in 2026 will officially and completely open this historical process.
- Unless the US-led coalition successfully initiates a “pre-emptive peace negotiation plan,” China’s military actions cannot be obscured as “legitimate.” Therefore, the leading group of the existing imperial order must coordinate with the US in comprehensive political, economic, and military intervention in China. This is the underlying logic and an inevitable requirement for maintaining the existing power order.
- Following the European wars of 2022, Europe is realistically and closely intertwined with the United States (imperialization). Comprehensive interference in China’s political, economic, and military expansion is a logical response from Europe. Weak resistance from European nations to American control is insufficient to alter this political reality.
- As a powerful component of the imperial order, Europe also served as a crucial economic base for the United States-led coalition’s protracted and attrition-based wars.
- To weaken the long-term war capability of the US-led coalition, China’s response to Europe is a fundamental logical step. Promoting, expanding, and exacerbating chaos in the core European region is an essential way to prevent European intervention in Asian wars or to weaken its war capability.
- Several countries in the European, North African, and Middle Eastern regions have completed their psychological and even political preparations to intervene in the major political upheaval. They will amplify the chaos in the European region.
2.2 This creates a breach in NATO’s overall defense effectiveness (commitment).
(1. NATO is currently the most powerful military alliance and has the strongest military deterrence capability.)
This characteristic forms the logical basis for many small European countries seeking NATO military protection. It is also the basis for the US-led alliance to gain political, military, and economic benefits.
(2. NATO’s abuse of its enormous power has led Russia to seek national security boundaries both physically and psychologically.)
Europeans have not correctly recognized Russia’s capabilities. Russia actually possesses a comprehensive capability to be “unbeatable.” And it also possesses another capability: the ability to push the physical borders of national security to the east bank of the Dnieper River over a historical period of 50, 100, or 200 years. Ukraine faces long-term pressure to reshape its national and state relations with Russia. Europe must also comprehensively reassess its long-term course of dealing with Russia.
(3. If Europe intervenes in an Asian war, China and Russia will certainly use various complex and sophisticated means to break the full coverage of NATO’s collective defense agreement, thereby creating a gap in NATO’s defenses. In particular, the Baltic states are a direction worth paying attention to. The internal turmoil within NATO further increases the probability of this variable.)
2.3 Europe caught in a dilemma between intervening and allowing war in Asia.
(1. The United States has unprecedented control over Europe.)
The performance of the 2022 European war demonstrates that the United States has an unprecedented level of control over Europe.
To dismiss all European politicians and political professionals as political idiots is absolutely contrary to statistical principles. However, it’s not just ordinary citizens in Europe, but also politicians and national leaders across the continent who were unanimously and actively involved in the “Russia-Ukraine War.” Actively engaging in a war that weakens and divides oneself is utterly contrary to the basic logic of political science and philosophy, and also to the fundamental laws of historical progress. This question can ultimately only be explained by the argument that “Europe is, in fact, a de facto and substantial colony of the United States.”
(2. To let China’s difficulties go unchecked)
Allowing China to expand its power in the geopolitical and economic system would also make it difficult to appease public opinion in European countries. At the same time, it would be difficult to protect Europe’s economic decision-making power. For Europe, a colony, avoiding a US-led war in Asia was also an extremely difficult option.
(3. Difficulties in Intervening in Asian Wars)
Intervention in Asian wars could easily trigger widespread chaos and the disintegration of order in Europe. Europe as a whole currently lacks the capacity to fully resist a Russian-Chinese alliance, because this alliance may include numerous existing and potential anti-establishment forces scattered around the world, and even anti-establishment forces within Europe itself.
If Europe participates in a US-led military operation against China, a Chinese backlash against Europe is inevitable. Once China and Russia simultaneously become fully involved in the conflict in Ukraine, the heart of Europe, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, North African hotspots, Syria, Iran, and Turkey, Europe’s long-term turmoil will be difficult to quell. The rise of Russia (or a new Russian alliance), Iran (or an Iran-Saudi alliance), Turkey (or a Turkish-led coalition), and the new German Union will become a new geopolitical challenge for Europe. This shift may even redefine Europe’s political power structure.
2.4 The complexity of the impact of the United States’ response on the situation
Regardless of the angle from which China’s unification efforts are interpreted, the objective consequence is a disruption to the existing imperial power order. However, the impact on this power order is closely related to the US response pattern. A stronger US response results in a stronger impact, while a weaker response leads to a weaker impact.
2.4.1 Absorption-type defense solution:
Absorption-based defense strategies include “pre-emptive negotiation” or “post-emptive negotiation.” Their premise is to obscure, ignore, or even deny the anti-systemic nature of China’s unification efforts. They involve acknowledging or relinquishing some political and economic power to reduce (or even deny) the impact of China’s actions on the imperial order. The main resistance to this type of strategy comes from domestic public opinion within the Western alliance; unless a super-political figure emerges, this type of strategy will only exist in theory. However, this strategy will provide an operational basis for subsequent military pacification plans.
2.4.2 Coexistence-type defense scheme:
The coexistence-based defense strategy primarily employs a “pacification military approach” to limit military conflict to a low level, while simultaneously guiding domestic public opinion in the United States and Europe through this low-level conflict. The goal is to ultimately convince public opinion that China cannot be defeated militarily, thereby facilitating comprehensive negotiations to establish a mechanism for coexistence.
2.4.3 Offensive Defense Scheme
Offensive defense strategies are a set of approaches that primarily achieve political objectives through military intervention. Due to the various characteristics of China and the United States, two superpowers, a full-scale military conflict will likely proceed mainly by destroying or weakening the other side’s sustained warfighting capabilities. This dictates that the battlefield will inevitably expand, spread, and penetrate into core regions of Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Australia, and even South America through certain channels or methods.
2.4.4 Split-type defense scheme
Perhaps this set of action plans doesn’t even exist. Perhaps it’s merely an evolution of an aggressive or coexisting approach. Its characteristic is that neither the Chinese nor the American bloc can defeat the other, nor are they willing to compromise. Or perhaps it’s a result of both sides fearing compromise. The outcome would be a split in the global economic system into two parallel systems: a Western system with the US, North America, and Europe at its core, and an Eastern system with China, Japan, and Russia at its core. Other countries would fluctuate between the two blocs. But this approach would lead to a persistent state of chaos. Political and economic chaos would coexist, making this approach unsustainable.
Part Three: Risks, Pathways, and Values in Europe
3.1 Risks in Europe:
Since the outbreak of war in Europe in 2022, Europe has actually entered a chaotic historical phase. Europe has not only been severely weakened in terms of political and economic power, but also faces the greater risk of restarting the process of “border mobility”.
The Asian war in 2026 will have a more significant impact on the European region.
The European “border movement” process, which was still in its infancy, has been officially launched;
NATO’s collective defense mechanism has been breached;
The power to set economic rules has been significantly weakened;
The ability to initiate conceptual warfare has been significantly weakened;
The existing power structure is being dismantled. New geopolitical powers are emerging, and geopolitical forces are being reorganized or reintegrated.
3.2 The Value of Europe
(1. Economic power remains the main body and foundation of European values.)
In terms of population, market size, existing wealth, industrial manufacturing capacity, and technological level, Europe continues to lead the world average. This capability ensures Europe’s continued strong influence in existing or new economic systems. Whether in a unified economic system or two parallel economic systems, Europe’s economic capacity and value cannot be ignored.
(2. Cultural value)
Europe has consistently maintained one of the highest levels of education in the world. This characteristic ensures Europeans have a voice in the cultural sphere. Europe has even been able to maintain its cultural influence during turbulent times.
(3. The main forces exploring new philosophical solutions for the world)
Throughout its recorded history, Europe has been a hotspot of war and turmoil. This historical situation has spurred many Europeans to engage in philosophical thought. As a result, the world’s major philosophical schools, approaches, and methods of philosophical research are primarily derived from Europe. However, regrettably, Europe has yet to develop a dominant philosophical historical perspective.
The formation and practice of the capitalist social structure is a contribution of Europeans to the world.
The theoretical derivation of socialism originated in Europe. The exploration and experimentation of socialist social structures also yielded the most diverse experimental specimens in Europe. At the same time, Europe is also a region that has relatively successfully integrated capitalist and socialist social structures. Furthermore, Europe has a variety of social management models, providing diverse experiences for management models worldwide.
The world is currently in a state of mismanagement. The American-led imperial order is malfunctioning. Europe is at the center of various disputes and conflicts. If new philosophical theories and paths are created, they are quite likely to emerge in Europe.
3.3 The ways in which European values are reflected
(1. Getting rid of colonial status was an urgent task for Europe.)
Whether for active or passive reasons, European countries actively joined a war that weakened themselves. From any perspective, Europe possessed all or most of the attributes of a colony. For Europe to demonstrate its political, economic, or geostrategic power, the prerequisite was that it possessed the power to make major decisions independently.
The forces attempting anti-Americanism in Europe today are extremely weak, primarily because the public has not yet developed a widespread anti-colonial consciousness. The prerequisite for cultivating a broad anti-colonial consciousness among the public is to make them aware of and acknowledge Europe’s colonial status.
The active politicians currently existing in Europe have, in effect, become tools for maintaining the American colonial system. Expecting them to become the core of anti-colonialism is an overestimation of political ambition. This significant historical responsibility should be entrusted to a philosopher without political affiliation.
(2. War in Asia is both a major risk and a major opportunity)
The Chinese use one word to describe a critical moment: crisis. This word implies that the opportunity for success lies within danger, or that danger and opportunity often coexist.
The Asian war is a major opportunity for Europe. On the one hand, European politicians must take seriously the enormous risks of intervening in the Asian war; on the other hand, they must be psychologically and ideologically prepared to seize any major political opportunities that may arise.
(3. Correctly view the process of power deconstruction in Europe)
If Europe truly descends into widespread chaos and subsequent power restructuring, from an individual national perspective, some countries will inevitably suffer losses while others will benefit. However, Europe’s economic, political, and philosophical foundations remain. The political and economic power constituted by these foundations remains. Mao Zedong said, “Without destruction, there can be no construction.” This means that rebirth and reconstruction occur after significant losses or the destruction of the old structure. This philosophical principle indicates that even if Europe undergoes a major restructuring, its proportion in the global power system will not be significantly weakened.
(4. The reshuffling of European geopolitical power is unavoidable)
From a historical perspective, if Europe is to truly unleash its political, military, and historical power, and to maximize its contribution to human progress, the historical process of reorganizing European power is unavoidable. Avoiding this topic, or even using legal regulations or moral mechanisms to prevent this historical process, will not necessarily have a positive historical effect.
Summary:
Europe will inevitably be severely affected by the Asian war of 2026. Whether to intervene or avoid this war presents Europe with a dilemma. As a colony of the United States and the leading group of the American imperial order, avoiding this war would be an extremely difficult process for Europe. It would also fail to appease public opinion in European countries and effectively prevent China’s rapid expansion of power in the political and economic spheres. If Europe intervenes in this war, it will inevitably suffer a backlash from China, formally and completely restarting the process of European “border maneuvering,” triggering long-standing and profound turmoil in Europe and a shift in European geopolitical power dynamics. Europe should correctly understand its existing colonial situation and begin to prepare psychologically and ideologically for shedding its colonial status. It should also view the Asian war of 2026 from a higher and more far-sighted perspective.