Author: 葉 其泉

Two certain losers, Ukraine and the EU, are there produced already from the Russia-Ukraine War. Europe as a whole has lost its position and prospect to be one of the top polar underpinning the world. Ukraine has lost its power over its territory more than it had done before the war started. Worse yet, it might lose its construction frame as a whole country. One certain winner there is Russia because it will strongly stand at its bottom line.The USA is the biggest winner recently. China has also gained a lot.

In the Russia-Ukraine War, the greatest force in determining ceasefire lines is the United States, although Russia, Western Europe and China are also important background factors. Theoretically, there are three ceasefire lines. The first is the geographical boundary along the Dnieper River and the Black Sea coastline. It can also be defined as the western border of the battlefield. The second is the complete administrative boundary of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions. This line also serves as the eastern border wall of the Russia-Ukraine War. The third set of ceasefire lines is any arbitrary arc drawn in a wide area between the L1 line and the L2 line. If the US are to pursue only a limited outcome in this Russia-Ukraine War and do not want to involve more countries directly, then it would have enough initiative to draw a stable ceasefire line somewhere along the L1, L2 or even L3 lines. For Russia, a ceasefire line on the L1 and L2 lines would have a more certain prospect than the uncertainty of the L3 line. Ukraine is not willing to accept the L1 line. The big reasons for the L2 line being there as a ceaseline and border wall are listed following, including the US has an overwhelming advantage in Russia-Ukraine War; this line will not be too bed to result in a major political defeat for Russia; and China would support this line as a bottom line to block NATO.