The Nature of Military Progress History

(research outline)

Abstracts:

The history of military progress is a history of the quest for better effective weapon ranges. A weapon is an instrument used to destroy the enemy. The ultimate destructive effect of a weapon is perfectly captured by its “effective weapon range”. The first recorded dominant weapon on the battlefield in China was the mortar and pestle. It was an effective weapon to conduct physical strength. After the Bronze Age, the dominant weapon on the battlefield was quickly updated to the spear. It could achieve the same destructive effect at a slightly longer combat distance than the mortar and pestle. At the same time the cost of updating the weapon did not lead to economic hardship. The bow and arrow set was the first generation of long-range weapons in history. Its appearance transformed military doctrine. Military battles were transformed from bloc collisions to the possibility of killing the enemy without contact, depending on geography. Even though the bow and arrow was a revolutionary advancement, it failed to take the place of the spear as the dominant weapon on the battlefield for over 1,000 years that followed. The underlying reason was the economic cost constraints. The bow and arrow eventually emerged as the dominant weapon for a brief period of history during the Mongol Empire. The cannon quickly overshadowed the bow and arrow about 100 years after it appeared in history. It replaced the bow and arrow when the killing range was still not as far as the bow and arrow. When the environment for its use was still restricted (it could not be used on rainy days), it took the place of the bow and arrow in history. The main reason was also economic. It costs no more to manufacture than a bow and arrow. It costs far less to train than a bow and arrow. It costs far less to keep and maintain than a bow and arrow. It also costs far less to use than a bow and arrow. This allowed it to replace the bow and arrow as the dominant weapon on the battlefield at shorter ranges than the bow and arrow. Further improvements in firearms followed this line of development. The reason the heavy machine gun was a key weapon in both WWI and WWII, but ultimately did not become the dominant weapon was economics. The revolutionary V1 and V2 rockets, as well as the giant heavy artillery, did not flip the German air and naval disadvantage, also because of economics. The Tiger tank, which was #1 in offensive capability and protection, was eventually defeated by the much weaker T3, T4, and Sherman tanks, also because of economics. Even if multiple countries now have missiles with a range of over 10,000 kilometers, they are unlikely to be the dominant weapons on the battlefield now. This is a major piece of evidence that economic factors determine the value of weapons. If it is ultimately proven that the “effective weapon range” of intermediate-range missiles exceeds that of aircraft carrier battle groups, the decline of aircraft carriers will be the inevitable path. The decline of the political power that rests on carriers will also be expected. The “effective range of a weapon” consists of three elements: lethal range, destructive effect, and economy.

I.The history of war is essentially a history of progress in effective range.

1.1. define

Effective range of weapons: The effective range of a weapon consists of three main substrates. Range of action; lethal effect; and economy (ability to be used at scale).

1.2.  First generation battlefield dominant weapon:Sticks and guns.

Reviewing the history of warfare in ancient China, there are records showing that before bronze technology was applied to warfare, the dominant weapon of war was the wooden stick (mortar and pestle). After bronze technology was applied to warfare, the dominant weapon of war was upgraded to the lance. This upgrade had two bases. One is in achieving the appropriate lethal effect, since the lance has a longer lethal distance than the wooden stick; and the other is that a comprehensive upgrade from pestle and mortar to lance would not lead to the collapse of the country's economy.

1.3 Second Generation Dominant Weapons:Bows and crossbows:

Figure 10: The first ever long-range weapons - bows, crossbows, catapults

The bow and arrow was the first truly long-range killing weapon in history. It was the first revolutionary advance in weaponry. The appearance of this weapon changed the shape of war. For the first time, it was possible to achieve victory in battle by killing and wounding the enemy without contact after blocking them by using the terrain to advantage.

But the bow and arrow has not replaced the lance as the predominant weapon of war for over a thousand years of recorded history. The main reason for this is that cost limits its effect of scale. The high cost of production, the high cost of storage and maintenance, and the high cost of manpower training were all economic factors that prevented the bow and arrow from being upgraded to the dominant weapon of the ancient Chinese army for more than 1,000 years alongside the lance. It was not until the time of the Mongol Empire that the bow and arrow set was upgraded for the first time to become the dominant weapon in ancient warfare.

At the Battle of Crecy, the shorter-range and less lethal bow and arrow prevailed over the longer-range and more lethal combination of crossbow and heavy cavalry. The logic is that economy determines the outcome of a war or battle. Economy is an important factor in the effective range of a weapon.

1.4 Third generation of dominant weapons: firearms

1.4.1 The fire cannon:

The cannon quickly took over the dominant role of the bow and arrow when the range of action was not as long as that of the bow and arrow. The manufacturing cost of the cannon was not more expensive than that of the bow and arrow, but the training cost and usage cost were significantly better than that of the bow and arrow. It can be seen that the role of effective range in the battlefield is much greater than the role of killing distance.

Figure 12: Singijeon replaced the bow and arrow in history when the killing distance was not as long as the bow and arrow. 

1.4.2  Blowguns:

The later development of the percussion musket had a better range, a faster rate of fire, and was more efficient in its use. The quest for greater effective range was reflected in the simultaneous pursuit of range and rate of fire, while balancing economic cost. The heavy machine gun had a longer range and a higher rate of fire, but the economic cost made it a key weapon in World War I rather than the decisive or dominant weapon.

Figure 12: Firing guns once dominated a period of war history

1.5 Fourth-generation dominant weapons:Artillery:

1.5.1 Napoleonic artillery

Figure 13: Mobility Artillery Becomes the Dominant Weapon of World War II (Plains-Type Battlefields)

The relentless quest for greater range and more effective kills dictated that artillery was bound to appear on the battlefield. The Napoleonic era was a short-lived era of artillery victory. But the economic characteristics of artillery limited its historical importance. It was not until World War II that mobile artillery (tanks) finally became the dominant force of war in the European battlefield (the plains-type battlefield).

1.5.2 Weapons of Maritime Power:

Figure 14: Shipboard weapons have had the advantage of killing distance and effective range for 400 years in recent times

Due to the high load-bearing characteristics of ships, it was possible to place heavy and large guns on ships. This allowed for the emergence of super-powerful ship-mounted guns of both caliber and range. The mobility of the ship provided substantial reusability of these guns in both temporal and spatial windows.

Thus, shipboard artillery has a comprehensive advantage over land-based artillery in terms of range, lethality, and cost of use. Relying on the effective range advantage, shipboard artillery can destroy land-based artillery, while land-based artillery can not destroy shipboard artillery. Thus the era of seapower superiority began in the history of warfare. Seapower superiority protected the military and political superiority of the Spanish, British, and American empires.

1.5.3 World War II mobile artillery

1.6 Fifth Generation Dominant Weapons Composite range weapons:

Figure 15: Composite Ranged Weapons Determined the End of the Asian Theater of World War II

The Asian battlefields of World War II were the forefront of technological advances in weaponry. The theory that “the effective range of a weapon determines the final outcome of a war” was most fully realized. After the range of mobile airfields and carrier planes far exceeded the range of battleships' guns, battleships and cruisers completely lost their expected combat effectiveness. Even one of the most advanced battleships (Musashi) was sunk by aircraft from an aircraft carrier on its maiden voyage into battle.

1.7 Sixth Generation Dominant Weapons:Long-range weapons:

Represented by the V1 and V2 rockets, a new generation of long-range weapons officially entered the battlefield. But the revolutionary V1 and V2 could not reverse Nazi Germany's air and battlefield disadvantages. The reason was that the V1 and V2 did not have the economy that the leading weapons of war must have.

The longest range of missiles now exceeds 10K kilometers. But long-range missiles are still not the dominant weapon in conventional warfare. For economic reasons, long-range missiles do not have the power to dominate the course of conventional war. Ukraine, for example, has chosen to discard its existing long-range weapons because it cannot afford to maintain and preserve them. The DPRK, even if it had the capability of long-range missiles, would not be able to use such weapons in actual conventional warfare.

There is even another possibility of extremity. It is that the possession and use of overly expensive weapons becomes the main reason for the ultimate failure of the user. 

Economy, repeatability or affordability is the most important factor in the dominant weapon of war. It is even more important than lethal range and destructive effect.

II.Economy is the most fundamental characteristic of a leading weapon

2.1 Socio-organizational capacity for socio-economic capacity

2.2 Sustained warfighting capability as a fundamental underpinning of armed capacity

2.3 Economic forces ultimately determine the outcome of the war

III.The significance of China's medium-range missile fleet

3.1 Cost effects of economies of scale

3.2 A window to re-launch the era of land power:

Two important characteristics have been tacitly recognized by cyber forces regarding China's medium-range missiles. They are range and economy. Cyber opinion now defaults to the fact that the range of China's medium-range missiles is well beyond the range of a U.S. mobile airfield plus ship-based aircraft plus ship-based cruise missiles. Economy defaults to 900-1,100 medium-range missiles costing as much to manufacture as a U.S. carrier fleet (one carrier plus 4-8 combat ships plus 50-60 carrier aircraft plus one submarine) [10].

Table 4: U.S. Carrier Battle Group Manufacturing Costs 

If the third characteristic, destructive effect, is verified by a small-scale test battle, then Chinese intermediate-range missiles could comprehensively outperform U.S. weapon systems in all three areas that make up effective range.

If this possibility is finally confirmed, it will not only lead to the decline of American power, but will reopen the era of land power war power over sea power war power.

Table 2: Cost Exchange Ratio of Chinese Anti-Ship Missiles to U.S. Carrier Battle Groups 

If this possibility is finally confirmed, the United States will automatically shrink its sphere of influence. China would not have to force the United States back through a full-scale war. This is a great temptation for China. Thus the temptation to launch a small-scale exploratory or demonstration war would be hard for China to resist.

3.3 Political power is dependent on overall military capability

The essence of military development history