Record of Submission April 26, 2022
The original article has been lost. Accidentally found a submission that shows that the earliest prediction of the border wall for the Russian-Ukrainian war was on April 26, 2022. This time is about the end of the first stage of the special Russian military campaign.
There are three key points to this record submission.
Three key points:
1. There are three theoretical ceasefire lines
(Isn't it too early to predict a ceasefire when the war has just begun!)
1.1 The L1 line is bounded by the Dnieper River. (The Black Sea coast had not been discussed at that time). It was only on May 23, 2022 that I first mentioned the Black Sea coast as part of the L1 ceasefire line.
1.2 Line L2 is the full administrative boundary between Donetsk and Luhansk.
1.3 Line L3 is any ceasefire line located between lines L1 and L2.
2. The United States is the strongest force on the ceasefire issue.
2.1 It was pointed out at the time that the most powerful force in deciding whether and where to have a ceasefire was the United States, and no one else (with the exception of Russia, the European Union and China specifically listed).
2.1 If the US's main objective is to weaken Russia, weaken the EU, and block Russia's ties with the EU, the US will choose a relatively stable ceasefire line between the L1 and L2 lines.
2.2 If the main aim of the US is to keep weakening Russia, weakening the EU and creating long-term chaos in Europe, then the US will opt for an unstable ceasefire line on the L3 line.
3. India carries a lot of weight
If India were to intervene in this mess, it would pose a huge risk to all parties involved and could even lead to a third world war.
(What is the basis for this prophecy? I am a bit confused now. But in the May 23, 2022 manuscript, I mentioned the following. If India turns around and joins in the sanctions against Russia, it will encourage the US to disassociate itself from China. Then the US will have more confidence to divide the whole world into two parallel parts).
Conclusion:
1. Both the battle and the ceasefire will take place within two closed walls (between the L1 and L2 lines).
2. There will be a ceasefire.
3. The ceasefire at the two boundary walls is relatively stable.
4. The ceasefire between the two boundary walls is unstable.
5. The decisive force on the battlefield is the United States and no other country.
6. The aims of the war included weakening the EU, weakening Russia, and breaking the link between the EU and Russia.
7. The purpose of the war does not exclude that the United States will continue to weaken the EU, weaken Russia, and continue to perpetuate the chaos in Europe.
8. India carries so much weight that it could trigger World War III. (Note: Obviously, since the May 23, 2022 submission, I have greatly reduced the weight of India. I don't remember the basis for this judgment lately. Sorry!)
Notes.
In any case, at least my prediction that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will be confined between L1 and L2 is still not out of date. Of course, I'm getting more conservative now, so I included a time-bound adverb in a recent post, ”at least until the end of 2026.”
The prediction that the United States is committed to weakening the EU has largely been confirmed.
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