(This is an outline for an incomplete study.)
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Preview Date |
Mar. 29, 2023 |
Updated Date |
September 10, 2023 |
summary:
If a military conflict were to break out between China and the United States in Asia, Japan would inevitably be drawn in. Moreover, Japan would likely be a major force, or even a key force, in the early stages of the conflict. However, once the US-China conflict escalates to a medium level, Japan would face a dilemma: choose between two options. If it becomes clear that the US-led coalition cannot defeat China in the conflict, Japan would face the real-world option of alleviating immense political pressure from China. This pressure includes historical issues, postwar arrangements, domestic unrest, and geopolitical pressures related to the Southern Kuril Islands.
Keywords:
Japan, choices, US-China conflict, postwar order, colonial status, geopolitics
If a military conflict breaks out between China and the United States in Asia in 2026, Japan will be an active member of the US-led coalition and will play a key role in the early stages of the conflict.
However, Japan has a fatal flaw in the face of the entire Sino-US conflict: it struggles to proactively control its own destiny. This flaw places Japan in a complex political environment throughout the conflict, and its fate is heavily influenced by external forces.
I. The Political Flaws in Japan’s Relations with the United States
1.1 Defense Dependence
Japan’s defense capabilities are entirely dependent on (or dependent on) the United States. As a defeated nation in World War II, Japan still does not have its own defense force. Its national defense functions are entirely undertaken by the United States. It does not have an independent defense policy, and its military decision-making capabilities are completely subject to the United States.
1.2 Political Dependence
The political decision-making process is heavily influenced by the United States. As a country without an independent military, it is logical that it would lose its political decision-making power along with its military decision-making power.
Japan’s postwar political structure was established by the United States; Japanese politicians are under close American control; thus ensuring that Japan’s political decisions follow the political direction of the United States.
1.3 Economic Dependence
Japan’s postwar economic recovery benefited from US support. At the same time, Japan’s economic development framework was also closely controlled by the US. This is the fundamental reason why Japan repeatedly chose the wrong technological path in its technological development process.
II. The Flaws in Japan’s Relations with China
2.1 Historical Defects
Japan has serious flaws in its national history, which have become a source of psychological pressure for the Japanese people. How to alleviate, correct, and rectify these flaws remains a real problem for the Japanese people.
2.2 Political Defects
In terms of the political environment, Japan suffered from fatal flaws in its postwar arrangements. This flaw became another major source of fear within Japan.
2.3 Geological defects
After China landed on Taiwan, it gained a geopolitical advantage over Japan. This geopolitical advantage was further strengthened by China’s economic and political power.
III. Japan’s Proactive Choice in the Face of War
3.1 Japan was a major participant in the early stages of the Sino-US conflict.
In the face of war, Japan has no real choice. Its real choice is essentially the United States’ military decision-making power.
It is a perfectly logical inference that if a conflict were to break out between China and the United States, Japan’s military would become the vanguard of the US-led alliance. Japan would certainly be a major or key force involved in the early stages and low- to medium-level conflicts between China and the United States.
3.2 Japan has an internal drive to completely defeat China.
(1. Relieve historical burdens;)
(2. To resolve the political flaws of the post-war arrangements;)
(3. Prevent China from rapidly seizing economic and political power;)
(4. Defeating China brings huge geopolitical benefits.)
IV. Japan’s Passive Choices in the Face of War
If China gains the initiative on the Asian battlefield, or if the conflict between the US and China escalates to a medium level, Japan (the US-led alliance) will inevitably be forced to choose its military strategy. This strategy will involve moving effective military forces stationed in Japan and South Korea to the Philippines or other military bases. The aim is to escape the effective range of Chinese medium-range ballistic missiles.
(1. Japan’s escape from colonial status)
Once the US military withdraws from Northeast Asia, the military pressure on Japan’s colonial rule will disappear. A historical opportunity will arise for Japan to escape its colonial status.
(2. Japan escapes from the US alliance)
Once the United States demonstrates its inability to defeat China in a medium- or higher-level conflict, Japan will undoubtedly swiftly abandon the US and join the Chinese alliance. Japan must seize this historical opportunity to alleviate its historical debts while simultaneously pleading with China not to settle accounts regarding post-war arrangements.
V. Japan’s Dilemma
The Japanese possess complex national characteristics. They are calculating yet suspicious, impulsive yet decisive. These two seemingly unrelated traits are intricately intertwined in their national character. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that Japan might make atypical political choices. The following are likely key considerations when Japan makes political choices.
5.1 Japan’s Military Importance
Is Japan a decisive factor in the US-China conflict? This is a key question that Japanese politicians will be pondering.
If Japan possesses the ability to significantly influence the outcome of the war, it will gain political initiative during the war and, more importantly, the initiative in the post-war distribution of power.
If Japan lacks this capability, it can only drift along with the tide during the war, constantly changing its stance according to the dynamics of the war in order to obtain the greatest national interest.
5.2 Military Capabilities of the US-led Alliance
Whether the US-led coalition can defeat China in a high-response conflict is another key question facing Japanese politicians.
If military conflicts between the US-led coalition and China do not exceed the level of the “pacification plan,” the US will not face the option of withdrawing from Northeast Asia. Japan will also not need to consider the deeper issue of following A or B.
However, once the conflict escalates to an intermediate response level, or even reaches the stage of “preparing for an intermediate response conflict,” Japanese politicians will find themselves caught in a dilemma of “following A or B.” As long as China does not lose in a conflict of intermediate or major scale, it can guarantee its political expansion in Northeast Asia. Japan will inevitably face the reality of “choosing A or B.”
5.3 China’s Economic Power
China’s economic power is another crucial factor that Japanese politicians must consider when making political choices. If the United States ultimately decides to exclude China from its economic sphere, China will inevitably face pressure to rebuild a “parallel economic system.” China’s economic influence; the market size of a China-led economic sphere; and the long-term benefits (or losses) of Japan entering a China-led economic sphere are all factors influencing Japan’s choices.
5.4 The political gains and risks of following the United States
No matter how you look at it, Japanese politicians have only one goal: to maximize Japan’s national interests.
The political gains or losses of following the United States are as follows.
(1. It will not lead to major domestic political turmoil;)
(2. It will not cause major economic turmoil;)
(3. China cannot defeat the United States at the national level; the United States remains the world’s leading political power.)
(4. There is no expectation of huge economic benefits. Japan has had several breakthroughs in economic direction, but they have all been abandoned by economic power and have failed to generate the expected benefits;
(5. There is a huge risk that China will overturn the post-war arrangements;)
(6. It will face political and economic cooperation between China and Russia in the Southern Kuril Islands or the northern Sea of Japan;)
(7. There is a risk that China will incite domestic separatist forces;)
5.5 The Political Gains and Risks of Following China
(1. To moderately ease the historical grievances between Japan and China, at least to avoid exacerbating hatred;)
(2. To appropriately alleviate China’s pressure to dismantle Japan’s existing structure, laying the foundation for the eventual easing of tensions with China;
(3. Integrating the research capabilities of two (or even four) countries through collaboration may help avoid repeated failures in the direction of science and technology investment;
(4. To alleviate the geopolitical pressure created by China in the Southern Kuril Islands;)
(5. To shed the colonial status after World War II and gain political decision-making power;)
(6. They will face economic and political expulsion from the United States;)
(7. Facing the political risk of domestic unrest caused by the United States.)
Summary of the outline:
If a military conflict were to break out between China and the United States in Asia, Japan would inevitably be drawn in. Moreover, Japan would likely be a major force, or even a key force, in the early stages of the conflict. However, if the US-China conflict escalates to a medium-level war, Japan would face a dilemma: choose between option A or option B. Once it becomes clear that the US-led coalition cannot defeat China in the conflict, Japan would face the real-world choice of how to handle immense political pressure from China. This pressure includes historical reckoning, overturning postwar arrangements, inciting domestic unrest, and geopolitical pressure from the Southern Kuril Islands.