September 15, 2026, can be considered a watershed and a critical juncture. Whether mainland China conducts military reunification operations before or after this date will have significantly different political and historical consequences. This critical juncture is crucial not only for mainland China but also for the Asian and world order, and has significant implications for a range of related countries.
The outline is complete. The full content will be published after September 15, 2026.
Two clear losers, Ukraine and the EU, have emerged from the Russo-Ukrainian war. Europe has lost its status and prospects as a world power. Ukraine has lost control of more territory than before the war began. Worse still, it may lose the structural framework of the entire country. One clear winner is Russia. As long as it holds its bottom line—the intact borders formed by the Donetsk and Luhansk regions—Russia is effectively invincible. All the losses the war has caused Russia can be compensated for by Ukraine, and perhaps even more. The United States is currently the biggest winner. It has already reaped at least three tangible rewards. This includes weakening Europe, weakening Russia, and building a fortified trench in Ukraine to prevent Europe and Russia from drawing closer to each other for at least the next 50 years. The United States is also the most powerful force capable of deciding when and where to establish a final ceasefire line. China has also gained much so far. However, if the United States intends to drag China into a large-scale war, not only will both China and the United States face enormous risks, but many other countries will also be caught in the crossfire.
Under the current mainstream interpretations and narrative frameworks, China’s overall national competitiveness curve is projected to intersect with that of the United States around 2050. However, under an alternative assessment system that transcends these current narratives, China is deemed to have surpassed the United States in overall military capability as early as 2022. China is believed to hold three major trump cards: its advantage in overall national war-fighting capabilities; its power to trigger political turmoil and territorial changes in Europe; and its ultimate trump card—the ability to force the United States to accept a “U.S.-China Axis” system. These three advantages form the conceptual and philosophical foundation for China’s challenge to the unipolar U.S. imperial order.
Hong Kong people, having already acquired full legislative, judicial, and judicial powers, are attempting to “seize” “full executive power.” These three powers constitute the entire power framework of an independent nation. The Chinese central government cannot allow Hong Kong people, who are “politically incapable,” to seize national power. Reclaiming some of the powers previously granted to Hong Kong people is the only possible option for the Chinese central government. The Hong Kong people’s “rebellion” will not only fail to achieve its intended benefits but will also jeopardize the maintenance and continuation of “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong, and will also jeopardize the prospects of “one country, two systems” in Taiwan.
The national security mechanism is not only a natural responsibility of Hong Kong people, but also an authority delegated to the Central Government to “govern Hong Kong with a hidden hand.” If Hong Kong people do not delegate this authority, they will be forcing the Central Government to govern Hong Kong with an “open hand.” Once the Central Government begins to govern Hong Kong with an “open hand,” it will signal a shrinking of the space for “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong. Moreover, this will directly threaten the continuation of “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong beyond 2047.
Preview Date Mar. 29, 2023 Updated Date September 8, 2023 (This is an outline of an incomplete research project.) summary: If China launches a cross-Taiwan military operation in 2026, the United States will find it difficult to respond appropriately. Mainland China possesses a clear military advantage in areas covered by intermediate-range ballistic missiles, as…
Since 2003, Hong Kong people have gained considerable short-term political benefits from the central government through large-scale political marches. These benefits have encouraged the inertia and enthusiasm of Hong Kong people in organizing large-scale marches. However, these actions have seriously damaged Hong Kong’s political and economic prospects. Hong Kong’s political and economic decline is inevitable. The probability of Hong Kong continuing under “two systems” or “autonomy” after 2047 is close to zero. The probability of Hong Kong being divided into three or more parts by 2047 is close to 100%. Stubborn or hardline anti-central government forces will face “inconsistent treatment.”