Metapolitica

Political Forecasting and In-Depth Studies Volume 1 Issue 2 April 2026

The Instrumental Nature of “Soft Power” (1): Speed Bump Effect

Ye Qiquan

Citation: (APA)

Ye Qiquan. (2026). The Instrumental Nature of “Soft Power” (1): The Speed Bump Effect. Political Forecasting and In-Depth Studies. April 2026. Vol. 1(2), 68–75.

Abstract: Soft power does not possess objective attributes. It is, in essence, a tool—a tool for the low-cost application of hard power. The instrumental effects of soft power manifest on two levels: the “Speed bump effect” and the “Accelerator effect.” The Speed bump effect takes three forms: the Deprivation effect, the Passive deceleration effect, and the Active deceleration effect.

Keywords:
Soft Power; Speed Bump Effect; Passive Deceleration Effect; Active Deceleration Effect; Hard Power; Tool; Double Standard;

During President Clinton’s administration, the term “soft power” became globally recognized. During Secretary Clinton’s tenure, soft power further evolved into “smart power.” These two terms have been widely cited globally and have become an important indicator and goal for nations striving to emulate the “most advanced political systems.”

From the perspective of Metapolitica (a philosophical system founded on ecological competition), soft power does not exist as an objective reality. Soft power is, in essence, a low-cost means of employing hard power. That is, soft power is a political and competitive tool. The instrumental nature of soft power possesses two levels of practical value. The first level of value is the Speed bump effect. The second level of value is the Accelerator effect.

This section focuses on discussing the “speed bump effect” of soft power.

From the perspective of Metapolitica, “soft power” cannot be identified as an objective entity. If an object is objectively real, it must possess inherent objectivity—that is, consistency in value, consistency in measurement, consistency in evaluation, and consistency in utility. None of these objective criteria can be applied to the concept of “soft power.”

However, the concept of “soft power” has indeed long existed within the realms of political science, military science, and even economics. It is, in essence, a tool employed by the dominant powers of the imperial order. It serves as a low-cost means of utilizing hard power. One of its most important objectives is to erode the competitiveness of rivals and those seeking to catch up. This, in turn, further elevates the dominant empire’s overall power (Potentium) and reinforces the existing imperial order.

I. The Deprivation Effect

The most significant function of soft power is for dominant powers to use their authority to deprive weaker parties of their equal rights.

The table below lists a series of comparative events. By examining the consistency of similar events in reality and the disparity in their consequences, it fully demonstrates the predatory and depriving effects of the soft power tool.

Different Final Effects of Soft Power on Similar Objective Targets

Initial Event

Comparative Incident

The Assassination of Jamal Khashoggi

Khashoggi is presumed dead and has been recognized by multiple countries as having been “assassinated by the Saudi government.”

This triggered a series of severe diplomatic condemnations, and the Saudi government faced sanctions from multiple governments.

The assassination of Qasem Soleimani

Concrete evidence proves that Soleimani was assassinated by the U.S. government. The U.S. government has acknowledged this fact.

The assassination was tacitly accepted as a legitimate act. There was virtually no political reaction.

The Death of Jeffrey Epstein

Epstein died in a U.S. prison on August 10, 2019.

The Epstein case involved numerous high-ranking U.S. officials, several former presidents, and many prominent political figures.

However, Epstein’s death did not trigger any political turmoil.

The Death of Alexei Navalny

Navalny died in a Russian prison on February 16, 2024.

Governments in many countries held the Russian government responsible for his death. This triggered a series of serious diplomatic reactions. Several countries expelled a large number of Russian diplomats.

Sergei Skripal was attacked with a nerve agent in the UK (March 2018), resulting in the death of a British civilian.

The Russian government was held responsible for this incident.

This triggered a severe diplomatic backlash. Multiple governments expelled over 100 Russian diplomatic officials.

Several Iranian scientists were assassinated

Several leading Iranian scientists were assassinated within Iran. Multiple lines of evidence point to a specific country’s involvement in this series of assassinations.

The political reaction was muted; no country (other than Iran) condemned the series of assassinations.

“Currency Manipulation” Allegations

As China continued to expand its foreign exchange reserves, it was accused of “manipulating exchange rates” and exploiting loopholes in WTO rules. Technically, however, China’s actions were fully in compliance with WTO regulations.

Unilateral Tariff Actions

During Trump’s presidency, the United States unilaterally and directly raised tariffs. Many countries chose to compromise, aside from voicing private complaints.

The 2019 Hong Kong Unrest

A Hong Kong man killed a Hong Kong woman in Taiwan. Even though the suspect publicly confessed to the crime, the Hong Kong judicial system was unable to prosecute him. To address this serious legal loophole, the Hong Kong government proposed a legislative amendment. However, this legally justified action “unexpectedly” sparked anti-government protests that lasted over a year.

During this period, there were numerous violent incidents, including attacks on police stations, a police officer having a finger bitten off, the burning of shopping malls, and people suffering burns.

A senior U.S. government official, ranked fourth in the line of succession, publicly declared the Hong Kong protests to be lawful and justified.

The 2021 U.S. Capitol Riot

On January 6, 2021, thousands of American citizens, questioning the election results, entered the U.S. Capitol almost peacefully. Their most “violent” act was taking a few chairs and desk calendars.

The incident lasted only a few hours. No deaths or injuries occurred during this time.

The U.S. government and judicial system swiftly classified this as a “criminal incident” and a domestic terrorist attack.

The Great Irish Famine

(1845–1852), with the peak occurring in 1847.

Consequences: One million people died, and over one million fled. Ireland’s total population decreased by 20–25%.

Response: The group of “absentee landlords” who owned Irish land widely evicted the starving and displaced; the British government blocked official relief efforts in Ireland and prevented foreign ships carrying food from entering Irish waters.

Political Consequences: Ireland gradually broke away from British rule.

Background: Between 1840 and 1842, the British government won the war against the Qing government and received substantial war reparations. Britain was widely recognized as a world power.

Political Impact: At the time, no major powers or public opinion condemned the British government. Subsequent history textbooks have not explicitly criticized British policies, nor have there been any political proposals demanding an apology or repentance from the British government.

The Great Famine of the Qing Dynasty

(Occurred from 1875 to 1878), with the main phase taking place in 1877–1878.

Consequences: 9.5 million deaths; over 20 million people fled the disaster-stricken areas. This accounted for 2–3% of the Qing Dynasty’s total population.

Response: The Qing government established a national-level disaster relief mechanism. It ordered local governments to provide relief to the victims and prohibited the expulsion of displaced people. Orders were issued to punish officials who failed to carry out relief efforts effectively.

Political Consequences: No political unrest occurred during or after this major disaster.

Background: The Qing government had just endured two major military defeats (the First Opium War, 1840–1842; the Second Opium War, 1856–1860). It was required to pay substantial war reparations, leaving the nation’s strength severely weakened.

Political Impact: Aside from positive coverage by numerous foreign journalists and commentators at the time of the famine, the incident left no lasting impact on the course of history. Furthermore, this event did not lead to any positive historical assessment of the Qing government or the Chinese disaster relief system.

Accusations of Russian Interference in U.S. Elections

In the 2016 U.S. election—and even in the 2020 and 2024 election years—one of the focal points of American public discourse has been the discussion of Russian interference in U.S. elections. Accusations from civilian, semi-official, and official sources have never ceased. The Russian side, however, has consistently denied these claims, viewing all accusations as part of a propaganda war.

Accusations of Illegitimate Elections in Venezuela

On January 10, 2019, a senior U.S. government official publicly stated the U.S. government’s official position: refusing to recognize the results of Venezuela’s election and urging the side that lost the election to step forward and form a government.

In the 1990s and 2000s, Yugoslavia successfully fragmented into multiple national entities under the guidance of soft power tools. Furthermore, Kosovo successfully established itself as a “de facto independent local government.”

The results of the 2010 Ukrainian presidential election were contested, and the democratically elected president was forced to flee the country in 2014.

In 2014, spontaneous referendums were held in four regions of Ukraine, but the results were not recognized.

Reviewing the historical events above, one conclusion is evident: soft power is not an objective reality. It has never possessed objectivity, objective value, or objective dimensions. It is a tool—a tool that works solely for the benefit of the powerful. It is a tool exclusively used to deprive the weak of their political rights.

II. Passive Deceleration Effect

Without deploying military force or incurring significant economic costs, it is possible to slow down the development pace and catch-up efforts of pursuing nations or developing countries. This is another crucial function of soft power as a tool: the passive deceleration effect.

To this day, free trade, equal human rights, the right to equal development, the equality of all people, natural rights, and the spirit of contract have all served as structural pillars of the Western moral, discursive, media, and even political systems. However, within the power enforcement system, imperial power groups actually implement a set of policies designed to prevent catch-up nations from obtaining equal political rights, equal basic human rights, equal economic development rights, and equal trade rights.

These discriminatory policies are primarily implemented through the tool of soft power.

Since their inception, the two major blocs—the East and the West—have imposed mutual technological blockades on one another. The West’s rationale for establishing such blockades has been “opposition to the oppression of the people by totalitarian states and totalitarian systems.”

Based on these political justifications, the Western alliance further introduced supporting policies to strengthen the ongoing technological and economic blockades against China and Cuba.

Japan’s Toshiba Corporation was severely punished for violating the technology embargo agreement by selling machine tools to the Soviet Union.

French industrial giant Alstom was forced to spin off its business and sell a large portion of its core operations to U.S. companies for violating anti-corruption ethical standards.

Japanese companies have repeatedly had their innovative research initiatives halted because their research directions often “failed to gain consistent market support.”

In the 1990s and 2000s, a “green economy wave” swept the globe. European companies leveraged global innovations to extensively promote solar photovoltaic technology, as well as wind and tidal power technologies, in China. This allowed them to reap excess profits from emerging markets such as China.

After the 2010s, China achieved breakthroughs in green energy technology and, in turn, exported large quantities of solar and wind power equipment to Europe. Europe subsequently introduced a series of new technical standards and national security standards. These measures dealt a severe blow to China’s industrial production.

In the 2000s, China invested in joining the European satellite navigation technology alliance. However, due to factors related to soft power, it was excluded from this high-tech alliance.

After China completed the acquisition of a Ukrainian aircraft engine company, the deal was forced to be voided due to soft power considerations. The substantial costs already incurred could not be recovered.

III. Active Deceleration Effect

Dominant powers or frontrunners intentionally erect barriers to hinder the progress of latecomers and catch-up nations. This is an overt application of soft power.

In fact, there exists another, more subtle form of soft power application with an even more potent blocking effect. This involves latecomers and catch-up nations actively pursuing soft power effects, thereby squandering their overall national competitiveness and proactively slowing their own development pace. We can refer to this type of “speed bump effect” as the “Active Deceleration Effect.”

3.1 The Active Deceleration Effect in Africa

Liberia and Haiti can be regarded, from multiple perspectives, as model cases of the United States’ promotion of “democratic systems” in Africa. However, the failures of these two countries do not imply that democratic systems have failed across the board in Africa. “Overall successful” model nations, such as Zimbabwe, are also widely present in Africa.

Nevertheless, among countries that have recently “passively” or “proactively” adopted “advanced democratic systems,” the failure rate is quite high.The most recent examples include, at a minimum: the democratization of Iraq, Libya, and Syria. Looking further back, Somalia is a classic example of a country that fell into prolonged anarchy due to its pursuit of a democratic system. South Africa can also be counted as one of the cases that actively pursued democratization. Of course, it is still too early to assert that South Africa has experienced a failed transition.

3.2 The Active Deceleration Effect in Russia

The vast majority of Russians would not admit that they are victims of the Active Deceleration Effect. They take it for granted that their transition process has been successful. However, the separation of the three sub-ethnic groups—Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine—into three independent political entities will undoubtedly inflict lasting harm on these “three sub-ethnic entities.”

Once “sub-national groups” separate into independent political entities, shaping or constructing their own “national characteristics, national identity, cultural symbols, historical coordinates, and psychological markers” becomes an objective necessity for each independent entity. They must continually introduce unique measures that diverge from the “historical motherland” to build and shape their distinctiveness.At times, driven solely by the need to “demonstrate their distinctiveness,” they will consciously implement a series of confrontational or even hostile policies. Capitalizing on this objective need, certain politicians will amplify or intensify it to secure political gains.

From this perspective, the war between Ukraine and Russia was inevitable. Conversely, the current friendship and unity between Belarus and Russia are the result of chance. In the long run, the friendly and mutually supportive relationship between Belarus and Russia is unlikely to endure.

Prediction: The three national entities—Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine—will inevitably undergo a difficult and entangled process until a relational structure emerges that is psychologically accepted by all parties. This process may take as long as 200 years.

3.3 Ukraine’s Active Deceleration Effect

Ukrainians, too, will not acknowledge that they are victims of the Active Deceleration Effect.

Whether from a historical or geopolitical perspective, Tsarist Russia and its direct successors are closer to Eastern culture in terms of psychological and institutional development. The relationship between the monarch and the nobility in the Russian Empire was, in essence, closer to that of the Chinese monarch and nobility. This relationship differed significantly from that of European monarchs and nobility.

The structure and power execution system of the Soviet Union were also virtually carbon copies of the ancient Chinese imperial system of tributary relations.

Although contemporary Russia and Belarus have adopted the Western system of separation of powers in their state structures, they have continued to follow a centralized approach in the exercise and execution of power. This has allowed these two political entities to maintain basic domestic political stability.

The Ukrainians have taken a different path. They have adopted a system of separation of powers in their institutional framework and have faithfully implemented a decentralized approach in the exercise and execution of power. Of course, it is still too early to assert that Ukraine will fail completely.

Prediction: Ukraine’s transformation into a “Yugoslavia” or “Somalia” is difficult to avoid. Over the course of 100 years, the Russians will inevitably push their national security border back to the L1 line. (Note: This prediction was first published on June 18, 2022) (Ye Qiquan, 2023).

3.4 The Active Deceleration Effect in China

The Chinese absolutely deny that they are victims of the Active Deceleration Effect. Joining the World Trade Organization was a major driving force behind China’s success. Cooperation with the United States and Europe has been a constant throughout the entire process of China’s rapid economic development.

This loyal adherence to “soft power” has inevitably led to the side effect of severely underestimating their own strength.

The Minimum Nuclear Retaliation Requirement Trap

According to the “Western narrative,” nuclear weapons pose a massive threat to world peace. China has long maintained (and may still maintain) a “minimum effective nuclear retaliatory capability.”However, Ye Qiquan has criticized this policy. In 2022, he pointed out that the primary responsibility for preventing the use of nuclear weapons in war must fall on the shoulders of the Chinese people. The Chinese must expand their nuclear arsenal to convince the decision-makers in the United States and Europe that China possesses the capability to deter nuclear war. Ye further noted that a sufficient and credible capability to deter nuclear war is the foundational capability for ensuring China’s unity (Ye Qiquan, 2023).

The Chinese people’s long-standing self-restraint within the nuclear logic of “minimum nuclear retaliation requirements” is a classic example of an “active deceleration effect” driven by soft power.

The Military Power Assessment Trap

In U.S.-dominated military power rankings, the Chinese Air Force has long been ranked eighth, below India. This is a major reason why Chinese politicians harbor fears regarding Western military capabilities.

In terms of overall military strength, Chinese politicians—and perhaps even the military—may have long feared a conflict with the West. This has become the primary reason for the United States’ continuous erosion of China’s national interests.

Whether using Western metrics for measuring soft power or Western metrics for calculating hard power, countless comprehensive assessment reports arrive at a fundamentally identical conclusion: China’s overall competitiveness/overall war-fighting capability is likely to surpass that of the United States around 2050.

However, a national total war capability assessment system led by Ye Qiquan reaches a completely opposite conclusion. According to Ye Qiquan’s model, China’s total war capability surpassed that of the United States as early as 2022 (Ye Qiquan, 2023; 2025).

Chinese politicians and military leaders have long been trapped in Western-style thinking, which may constitute another layer of the “speed bump effect.” Even when they raise objections to a particular issue, their alternative proposals are still built upon Western-style soft power frameworks. China’s domestic political conflicts and legal chaos over the past two decades can be entirely traced back to this root cause, and the country’s massive investment in the construction of aircraft carrier strike groups stems from the same reason.

The Trap of Political Investment Attractiveness

The Arab world has long sought to enlist China as a balancing force in the region. This process has been ongoing for at least 30 years. China has repeatedly refused to intervene in Middle Eastern affairs and has strived to maintain an equal distance from regional conflicts. This effectively undermines the appeal of its political investments. The Arab world has consistently made political investments in the hope of securing stable security returns through such engagement.Over the past two decades, China has lost nearly $100 billion in potential political investment, which has, in the long run, undermined its economic development potential.

China’s weakening of its own political investment appeal is a classic case of the “active deceleration effect” driven by soft power.

The Overall Competitiveness Trap

Guided by mainstream interpretations and narratives, the Chinese people have long harbored a fear of challenging the United States. This has prevented China’s “Taiwan wound” from healing, and the rate of “blood loss” has continued to accelerate. This represents a significant component of China’s overall competitive losses.

At the same time, because Taiwan has not been reunified in a timely manner, China not only suffers direct losses in the Taiwan direction but also continues to bleed in the directions of Japan and South Korea due to the delayed establishment of a new East Asian order. By normal logic, under the support of a new East Asian order, Japan and South Korea should naturally become assets that enhance China’s overall competitiveness rather than sources of loss.

Summary:

Soft power does not possess objective attributes. It is, in essence, a tool—a tool for leveraging hard power at low cost. The instrumental effects of soft power operate on two levels: the “speed bump effect” and the “accelerator effect.” The speed bump effect manifests in three forms: the deprivation effect, the passive deceleration effect, and the active deceleration effect.

References

Ye Qiquan. (2022). Whose War? Players winning or losing in the Russia-Ukraine War. Submitted to International Security on June 18, 2022.
Ye Qiquan. (2022). Whose War? Players winning or losing in the Russia-Ukraine War. PPPNet.https://destinedfating.blogspot.com/2022/09/whose-war-players-winning-or-losing-in.html. Archived on September 14, 2022.
Ye Qiquan. (2023). The National War Strength Model and Predictions on the Outcome of the Ukraine War. PPPNet. Dec. 7, 2023.https://pppnet.net/nation-war-strength-model-and-prediction/
Ye Qiquan. (2024). TheEssential Attributes of War and National War Capability. Canadian Science and Philosophy Press. 2024. 1st ed. Toronto.
Ye Qiquan. (2025). Mathematical Model to Predict Wars. Saudi J. Humanities Soc. Sci. 2025. Vol. 10 (5); 243–256.

The Instrumental Nature of “Soft Power” (1): Speed Bump Effect