Case Commentary: Political Forecasting and In-Depth Analysis, Volume 1, Issue 1, February 2026
Even if Carrie Lam commits suicide, it will not help the situation in Hong Kong.
Ye Qiquan
| First release date: | Monday, October 28, 2019 |
| Reference data element: (APA) |
| Ye Qiquan. (2026). Even if Carrie Lam commits suicide, it will not help the situation in Hong Kong. Political Prediction and In-depth Analysis. 2026. Vol. 1 (1), 19-20. |
| Abstract: The Carrie Lam administration has repeatedly backed down. Having effectively agreed to all five demands of the pro-democracy camp, it is now accused of further backing down, possibly agreeing to establish a special investigation team to investigate “police abuse of power.” If this is true, as reported, it would be tantamount to Lam’s “political suicide.” Even if Lam takes this step, it will not actually help alleviate the situation in Hong Kong. The opposition’s fundamental goal is not the so-called demands, but to create long-term chaos in Hong Kong. What Lam needs is a calm mind and a sincere team of advisors to help her. As Chairman Mao once said, “When the key link is grasped, everything else falls into place.” Lam and her team need to learn politics and find a bottom line for their defense. |
The South China Morning Post reported on October 26 that Carrie Lam might agree to establish an “independent police complaint handling commission.” In essence, this would be setting up a special investigation team to investigate “police abuse of power.” Intuitively, it seems unlikely that Lam would be so politically short-sighted. If Lam were to do this, it would be tantamount to “political suicide.” More importantly, even if Lam were willing to commit such “self-destruction,” it would absolutely not achieve her desired outcome of “calming down” or “de-escalating the situation.” Instead, it would further escalate the chaos, because the opposition’s goal is not the so-called “five demands” plus further demands. Their aim is to earn British wages and create prolonged chaos.
Some may argue that the Carrie Lam administration’s inadequate ability to handle complex situations is the root cause of its current missteps, leading to Lam’s inability to withstand the pressure.
I disagree with any view that considers the anti-extradition movement as an isolated incident. This “anti-extradition movement” did not begin in March of this year; it is part of a “continuous action against the central government” that began in 2003.
Mainlanders and mainland media echoing the narratives of Hong Kong media, providing excuses for every Hong Kong protest, demonstrate a lack of political awareness. We can review the reasons given for Hong Kong’s political demonstrations over the years; they are often contradictory or even contradictory.
In 1999, when the central government was concerned that the Hong Kong SAR government’s expansion of the right of abode would have uncontrollable consequences, a large-scale protest erupted in Hong Kong against the National People’s Congress’s interpretation of the law on the right of abode. The protesters argued that the central government’s interpretation interfered with Hong Kong people’s right to self-determination. Later, Hong Kong people turned around and protested against mainland mothers giving birth in Hong Kong for using Hong Kong’s welfare benefits.
Following Hong Kong’s successful defense of George Soros’s attack in 1998, the city’s economy suffered a severe blow. The Hong Kong SAR government requested the central government to allow individual tourists to visit Hong Kong to boost the economy. Later, the Hong Kong opposition accused the individual tourists of causing overcrowding and disorder.
Mainlanders flocked to Hong Kong to shop, but Hong Kong people actually held a protest based on the argument that “mainlanders have bought up all the milk powder in Hong Kong, and there isn’t enough for Hong Kong people,” which defies common economic sense.
A four-year-old child from mainland China relieved himself on a street in Hong Kong because he couldn’t find a toilet, and his parents even took the waste away. Surprisingly, Hong Kong people unanimously criticized mainlanders for “lacking manners.” I personally witnessed parents letting their young children relieve themselves on the roadside at tourist attractions in Quebec City, and everyone pretended not to see it.
This year’s protest reasons are even more anti-intellectual. A Hong Kong resident murdered another Hong Kong resident in Taiwan. This murderer returned to Hong Kong, yet the Hong Kong police, despite having solid evidence, were unable to arrest or prosecute him. This is clearly a huge legal loophole. The Hong Kong Legislative Yuan’s attempt to amend the law to close this loophole has become a pretext for the large-scale protests, and even a pretext for opposing the central government. Do the Hong Kong opposition need a pretext for their rebellious activities? They don’t. No matter how anti-intellectual, how unreasonable, or even if it’s something that actually protects the interests of Hong Kong people, it can become a reason for their actions against the mainland, against mainlanders, and against the central government.
Therefore, it is clear that the Hong Kong opposition is not acting in the name of opposing the extradition bill, nor in the name of human rights in Hong Kong. Their actions have only one purpose: to create chaos in Hong Kong and to launch a rebellion against the central government.
In this situation, who can Carrie Lam rely on? Only the Hong Kong police. For the past year, the Hong Kong police have been making concessions. They have endured humiliation during the chaos. The Hong Kong opposition not only attacked lone officers but also repeatedly published their private information and forced officers’ children to express their opposition to their police parents. One officer even had a finger bitten off. Now, the Hong Kong police have emotionally severed ties with the opposition. They are now the most sincere legal force standing with the SAR government. They are a proven force that Carrie Lam can rely on.
If Carrie Lam agrees to the opposition’s new demands to establish a so-called independent investigation body to “investigate police abuse of power,” she is abandoning the only force she can rely on. This would be a complete and utter “political suicide” for Lam. It would not only fail to de-escalate the chaos in Hong Kong, but would actually exacerbate it.
Furthermore, the effectiveness of Carrie Lam’s advisors is questionable. Is it truly impossible to find politically astute individuals in Hong Kong? Mao Zedong famously said, “When the main rope is pulled, everything else falls into place.” This means that once you find the key framework in a tangled mess, a gentle nudge will reveal the solution. Where does the root of Hong Kong’s problems lie? One root lies in the excessive greed of most Hong Kong people. Another root lies in the central government’s “indulgence, inaction, or neglect of Hong Kong’s chaos.” Once these two bottom lines are recognized, Carrie Lam can find her bottom line for defense. If she fails to identify these two root causes, she will inevitably be overwhelmed and exhausted.
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