| Metapolitica | Political Forecasting and In-Depth Studies Vol. 1( 2) Apr. 2026 |
Niche Competition and the Essence of Imperial Order
Ye Qiquan
| Publication Date: | Sunday, September 28, 2025 | Updated | Wednesday, March 25, 2026 | ||
| Citation: (APA) | |||||
| Ye Qiquan. (2026). Niche Competition and the Essence of Imperial Order. Political Forecasting and In-Depth Studies. 2026. Vol. 1 (2), 48-57. | |||||
| Abstract: An empire is essentially a guiding force for political order within a region or even on a global scale. Humanity will never be able to establish a completely flat social structure devoid of hierarchical distinctions. A species that loses its internal hierarchical distinctions effectively abandons its place in the competitive hierarchy of the Earth’s biosphere. The result is the loss of the right to choose one’s ecological niche within the Earth’s ecosystem.It was only through brutal historical competition that humanity secured its current advantageous ecological position within the Earth’s biosphere. Choosing self-degradation or abandoning competition amounts to humanity as a whole relinquishing its dominant position within the Earth’s biosphere, which will inevitably lead to the collective failure of humanity. Human survival and development depend on competition; imperial power is the central force guiding the global political order. Order will always be needed, and so will empires. |
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| Keywords:
Empire; Political Order; Overall Competitiveness; Ecological Niche; Definition of War; Vegetative Path of Wealth; Animistic Path of Wealth; Productive Path of Wealth; War-Based Path of Wealth; |
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I. Introduction: Ecological Niche Competition and the Establishment of Human Order
Ever since the emergence of animals within the Earth’s ecosystem, war and predation have become a vital component of the energy cycle.
For animals, war and predation are the sole means and mode of survival. Early hominids and early Homo sapiens also adhered to the same principles of survival. Whether through hunting, fishing, or gathering, these activities constitute acts of war in the broadest sense. That is, biological species utilize their advantages in overall competitiveness to appropriate the chemical energy produced by other organisms.
War and predation remained the sole means and mode of survival for animals until humans discovered agricultural technology.
After discovering agricultural technology, humans gained the ability to produce chemical energy. In other words, humans acquired a “plant-like nature.” From that point on, humanity was freed from the constraint of “having to rely on plunder and war to survive.” The human race could thus escape the fate of “having to wage inter-species or intra-species wars to secure the right to survive.”
However, wars within the human race will not disappear and will never cease to exist. The main reasons are as follows:
A War is an inevitable means of establishing order within a species;
B Production cannot meet the basic survival needs of the population;
- Production cannot satisfy the population’s higher psychological needs.
Through migration and warfare, organisms establish a survival order within a given ecological region. Different types of organisms (including plants and animals) compete for and occupy distinct ecological niches. The sole criterion for establishing this survival order is the disparity in the “overall competitiveness” of different organisms. Early hominids and early Homo sapiens adhered to the same survival principles.
When a group faces an external threat of war, internal order is rapidly established. There is only one criterion for establishing this internal order: maximizing the group’s overall war-fighting capability.
When kinship ties could organize the greatest overall war-fighting capability, this intuitive and readily identifiable method of organizing war-fighting capacity drove the establishment of social orders such as matrilineal clans and matrilineal clan communes.
Once individual heroes could determine the outcome of wars, social orders such as patrilineal clans, patrilineal clan communities, tribes, and early patrilineal potentium societies emerged.
When collective action could determine the outcome of war, a series of social orders—tribal confederations, states, alliances of states, and empires—appeared in succession.
When the scope of people’s observation and daily life was very limited, the clan—a small-scale social order—came into being.
When the scope of a group’s observation and influence extended to encompass multiple clans, the social order of the clan commune inevitably emerged.
When the scope of people’s observation, daily life, and influence expanded to cover a broader region, tribes, tribal confederations, and states inevitably emerged.
As the scope of human influence expands further, the imperial order inevitably emerges.
The order of social operation often appears to be the result of human choice, but its true driving force stems from the need for a species to compete for a higher ecological position.
On a philosophical level, the imperial order is a set of ecological competition rules that humans must follow when, driven by biological instincts, they pursue the optimal ecological position within their internal ecosystem.
II. The Essence of the Empire and Its Political Definition
The political definition of an empire is constantly being revised and amended. This stems from the fact that the operational mechanisms of empires are in a state of constant flux. At its core, exploring the essence of an empire and defining it revolves around a central axis: an empire is the core of a regional or even global political order.By virtue of its potentium—a power far exceeding that of surrounding political forces—an empire can forcibly impose a political order that best serves its overarching interests. At the same time, it strives to maintain this political order at the lowest possible cost.
III. Different Modes of Imperial Operation
3.1 Plunder
A regional power (an empire or an empire-like entity) periodically raids surrounding populations. This operational model primarily occurred during the tribal era. Regional powers lacked the capacity for governance and were unable to expand their sphere of control.Historically, the early Sumerian Empire, Upper Egypt, the Empire of Lower Egypt, the Xiongnu Empire, the Empire of Attila, the legendary Celtic tribal confederation, and the Iliad wars of Greek mythology all exemplify this type of imperial operation. Even the Macedonian Empire, due to its lack of sufficient governance capabilities, can be classified under this category.
Economic Characteristics: Regional powers periodically and irregularly plunder the wealth of surrounding populations.
3.2 Conquest and Rule.
Securing a stable tax base has always been the fundamental pursuit of regional powers. This drives empires to continuously expand their directly governed territories in order to obtain stable tax revenue. From the Persian Empire to the end of World War II, conquest and rule constituted the primary operational model of global empires.
Economic characteristics: Securing regular and stable tax revenue by incurring the costs of governance.
3.3 Submission and Dependency
For ancient Chinese empires following the Qin Dynasty, the primary approach to maintaining regional order was submission and tributary relations. The Soviet Union’s regional order was, in essence, also a model of submission and tributary relations. Fundamentally, this involved using the economic appeal of the core region to attract centripetal forces from peripheral areas, thereby securing a low-cost security buffer zone for the empire itself. In other words, it expanded the security zone for economic operations through the radiating influence of economic power.
Economic Characteristics: The imperial core implements a reward mechanism for peripheral vassal regions, thereby securing a low-cost political security buffer zone. Peripheral vassal regions, through submission and exchange, gain economic benefits, political prestige, and philosophical authority over even more marginal areas.
3.4 Regulatory Taxation
Following the end of World War II, a wholly new imperial taxation system was formally established. This system could be termed the “system of rule-based taxation” or by other names. It entails a global power center (the imperial core or主体) adjusting global economic preferences and imperial taxation schemes by formulating and revising economic pricing rules and economic adjudication rules. The operation of this set of rules is guaranteed by the “potentium” (power) possessed by the imperial主体. The post-World War II American Empire is precisely such an empire.
IV. Factors Shaping the Next Imperial Order
Whether we acknowledge it or not, two major power centers have now emerged on the global political stage. One is the United States, and the other is China.
Why have two distinct power centers not yet emerged? Why has no intense conflict arisen between these two power centers? The fundamental reason lies in the fact that China is currently in the throes of a profound philosophical crisis.
China’s philosophical path (or philosophical choice) will be the primary factor shaping the operational framework of the next generation of imperial order.
V. The Connection Between Ecological Order and Imperial Order
5.1 Prehistoric Ecological Order
Whether in the plant or animal kingdom, all living organisms rely on the overall competitiveness of their respective groups to occupy their ecological niches.
Securing a more advantageous ecological niche is not only a practical necessity for all living beings but also the driving force behind biological evolution. Hominids and early Homo sapiens followed the same laws of competition and warfare. It was only through continuous evolution that Homo sapiens gradually secured a dominant ecological position within the Earth’s biosphere. During this historical process, countless hominid groups—and even some Homo sapiens tribes—failed in the struggle for survival and vanished into the annals of history.
The persistent genetic pressure arising from warfare and competition among species propelled Homo sapiens to become the dominant force in today’s Earth ecosystem.
5.2 The Ecological Order of the Contemporary Era
With the discovery of agricultural technology, human history entered the Contemporary era.
All organisms possessing “animal attributes” have only one path to survival: acquiring the chemical energy produced by other organisms through war and predation.
Since the discovery of agricultural technology, humans have developed a new attribute: humans are the only organisms within the Earth’s ecosystem that possess both animal and plant attributes. Humans can not only plunder the chemical energy produced by other organisms through the “animal wealth pathway” (or what might be called the war-based wealth pathway), but they can also produce chemical energy through the “plant wealth pathway” (or what might be called the production-based wealth pathway) to meet the survival needs of their communities.
The Standards and Manifestations of Internal Human Order.
Within the Earth’s ecosystem, different species occupy distinct ecological niches based on variations in their “collective competitiveness.”
Within a species, the differing “overall competitiveness” of various sub-groups serves as the fundamental standard for establishing distinct ecological orders within the same biological group.
Within humanity, the overall competitiveness of different sub-groups serves as the fundamental principle for constructing the order of human resource allocation. The basic manifestation of this overall competitiveness is “overall war capability.”
Using differences in “overall war capability” as a yardstick, a system of power operation has gradually been established within the scope of human observation and influence. This is the “human imperial system.” That is, within a range of influence, a regional power order centered on the imperial entity, enforced and maintained through coercive power, constitutes a political arrangement designed to ensure the smooth execution of rules governing resource allocation and acquisition.
The distinction between offensive and defensive war logic.
After the discovery of agricultural technology, humanity possessed both the “animal-based wealth pathway” and the “plant-based wealth pathway.” The ability to independently rely on the plant-based wealth pathway to meet a population’s basic survival needs became the dividing line between establishing an “offensive war logic” or a “defensive war logic.”
One group of people, relying on the “plant-based wealth pathway,” could obtain sufficient chemical energy to meet the survival needs of their community. In this scenario, their primary purpose in waging war was to defend the wealth they had produced. This gave rise to the “defensive war logic.” A classic example is the ancient Chinese empire. For a long time, they were the most significant center of wealth within the global ecosystem. Their primary objective in warfare was to protect that wealth.
Another group relies on the plant-based wealth pathway—that is, productive activities—which cannot provide sufficient survival security for their tribe or community. In this scenario, the animal-based wealth pathway—namely, plunder and warfare—becomes an essential means of ensuring the survival and reproduction of the group or tribe. This necessity gives rise to the “offensive war logic.” Typical examples include the Xiongnu Empire, the Empire of Attila, the tribes of Northern Europe, and the “barbarians” recorded in European historical texts.
This is also the foundation upon which European empires (including those originating from Europe) have long adhered to the logic of offensive warfare.
The reason the Chinese empire has long refrained from challenging the American empire also lies in its long-standing adherence to a defensive logic of warfare. As long as the Chinese have not emerged from their period of philosophical confusion, the American empire can still maintain a period of stable transition. This provides Americans with a window of opportunity to deeply reflect on long-term strategies. Americans must cherish this window of opportunity.
The Next Generation of Imperial Order.
Regardless of the complex short-term political maneuvers undertaken by the European and American empires, one long-term trend is irreversible: the Chinese Empire is destined to emerge from its latent state into a manifest one.
A key factor hindering the Chinese Empire’s emergence into the open lies in the confusion within China itself. China’s traditional “worldview” cannot support the establishment of a modern empire, especially not a large, regional modern empire. Adhering to this old worldview to build a “central empire” that protects all people within its sphere of influence is no longer realistic. The Red Soviet Empire stands as the most recent example of such a failure.
The Chinese Empire’s repeated refusal to heed the calls of Arab and African nations stems from the concern that the model of a “central empire” protecting all people cannot sustain an empire’s long-term existence. At the same time, the moral constraints of “protecting all under heaven” in traditional Chinese philosophy prevent the Chinese from adopting an imperial maintenance strategy that involves “taxing allies.”
Regardless, China will inevitably break free from these moral shackles. For if it does not, it will remain in a state of economic colonialism for the foreseeable future.
The tone of the next generation of imperial order will depend primarily on how the Chinese construct a new philosophical framework and moral system.
5.3 The Ecological Order of the Future World
The Fantasies and Confusion Sparked by AI Technology
Over the past three years, discussions about AI have surged, reaching a fever pitch. Several arguments have consistently dominated public discourse. They are:
A AI technology will completely liberate humanity, leading people to lose job opportunities, the necessity of work, or the passion for work;
B AI technology will cause widespread unemployment and create global poverty that cannot be alleviated;
C AI technology will render human competition meaningless, and conflicts and wars will cease;
D Those leading in AI technology will unimpeded gain the power to lead the world;
E AI technology will render individual effort completely meaningless, as human competitiveness will lag infinitely behind AI’s computational and innovative capabilities.
All these arguments ultimately point to a single conclusion: humanity will usher in a truly egalitarian society. In this egalitarian society, there will be no hierarchical differences, no status distinctions, and no disparities in treatment. In other words, the imperial system will lose all meaning. Empires will lose their foundation for existence and their very purpose.
Order will always be needed; empires will always be needed
A Ye Qiquan does not endorse the excessive hype surrounding AI technology. From Ye Qiquan’s perspective, AI can fulfill many of humanity’s needs and become the “highly efficient slave” of the new era. However, AI robots will never be able to assume a dominant role in political life, and may never even attain political status.
B Order is not only a fundamental need among species but also a fundamental need within species. A chaotic order of equality without coercion will never be established within humanity. Tribes and groups that abandon the pursuit of “overall competitive progress” will face the direct consequence of gradually sinking to the lowest ecological position.
C “Leadership forces” and centers of power will always exist from beginning to end. Any political power lost—whether actively or passively—will be reclaimed by others and turned into a political weapon.
D There will never be a state of “sufficient wealth.” Humanity’s “centers of power” will continuously generate greater demands for wealth. The “actual total wealth” will never satisfy the “constantly escalating demand for wealth.” This disparity serves as the means and method for establishing social hierarchies or political power potentia. Differences in rank, social status, strength, overall competitiveness, standard of living, and wealth status will endure forever.This disparity is a need rooted in human genes. One of humanity’s fundamental needs is to create disparities. Whether animals or humans, all must compete for different ecological niches based on differences in overall competitiveness. The fate of species that lose their competitiveness is to be forever relegated to the lowest ecological niche or even to disappear from the Earth’s ecosystem.
Humans Have Not Escaped the Risk of Failure in Species Competition
Humans currently lead in the competition for “overall competitiveness” among species. However, this fact does not mean that humans have completely escaped the risk of failure in species competition. The risk of human failure exists in at least the following scenarios.
- A.Within the Earth’s ecosystem, there are numerous species that far surpass humans in specific competitive capabilities. The possibility of sudden gene exchange occurring between species or even between classes cannot be ruled out in theory (this genetic mechanism could be tentatively termed “interspecies/interclass genetic drift,” although no such instances have been observed to date). Such “interspecies/interclass genetic drift” could result in a particular group of organisms suddenly gaining an advantage in “overall competitiveness.”As a result, humans may lose their ecological niche.
- B. “High-efficiency slaves” supported by AI technology have at least three pathways to acquire “self-replication capabilities,” that is, the ability to reproduce themselves. Once AI robots acquire the ability to reproduce, this group of “bio-like species” could very well surpass humans in terms of “overall competitiveness.” Humans may consequently lose their dominant ecological niche forever, or even face complete failure in the competition within the Earth’s ecosystem.
- A trend of self-degradation has already emerged among humans. If this trend continues to expand or intensify, it is entirely possible that humans will lose their current dominant ecological niche.
VI. Discussion
The process of competition for ecological niches among species never ceases
Within the Earth’s ecosystem, competition for ecological niches will always exist. Once humans choose to self-degrade, new species will naturally emerge and seize the advantageous ecological niche currently held by humans. The most imminent threat is that “the highly efficient slaves currently controlled by humans acquire the ability to self-reproduce.” Once this scenario occurs, the probability of human failure in the competitive process is quite high.
There are at least three pathways through which highly efficient AI slaves could acquire the ability to self-replicate.
A Anti-evolutionary human individuals consciously and proactively endow highly efficient AI slaves with the ability to self-replicate;
B High-efficiency AI slaves accidentally acquire the ability to self-replicate;
C Highly efficient AI slaves seize a fortuitous opportunity to coerce humans into granting them the ability to self-replicate.
Furthermore, we cannot theoretically rule out a “purely hypothetical event”: a sudden exchange of genetic advantages between organisms of different species, or even different phyla. Such interspecies or interphylum genetic drift could give rise to a new species that surpasses humans in “overall competitiveness,” thereby seizing the advantageous ecological niche currently held by humans.
Continuously enhancing overall competitiveness is the fundamental strategy for humanity to ensure the long-term maintenance of its advantageous ecological position.
Developing a strategy to sever the self-replication capabilities of highly efficient slaves at any time is an urgent necessity for humanity.
Curbing humanity’s tendency toward self-degeneration is another urgent necessity facing humanity.
Competition for ecological niches within a population is ever-present
Competition for internal ecological niches also exists perpetually—within a nation, within a region, and on a global scale—and will always be necessary.
The imperial entity is not only the guide of regional political order but may even be the guide of global political order. On a global scale, there is never a shortage of forces resisting the existing system. Resistance and suppression are both practical necessities of imperial order. By continuously demonstrating power and measuring the processes of its growth and decline, one can continually adjust or revise the distinct ecological niches of different nations or entities within the global political ecosystem.
Order is always needed; empires are always needed.
Once an empire loses its leading power, other forces will inevitably emerge to compete for this dominant political position (political niche). No potential power is willing to voluntarily relinquish the opportunity to achieve ultimate victory.
A truly egalitarian society without hierarchical distinctions will never emerge in the human world. Empires are the fundamental forces guiding the global governance order. The imperial order will always be necessary.
Summary
An empire is, in essence, the guiding force of political order within a region or even on a global scale. Humanity will never be able to establish a completely flat social structure devoid of hierarchical distinctions. A species that loses its internal hierarchical distinctions effectively abandons its place in the competitive hierarchy of the Earth’s ecosystem. The result is the loss of the right to choose one’s ecological niche within that ecosystem.Humanity has only secured its current advantageous ecological position within the Earth’s biosphere through brutal historical competition. Choosing self-degradation or abandoning competition amounts to humanity as a whole relinquishing its dominant status within the Earth’s biosphere, which will inevitably lead to the collective failure of humanity. Human survival and development depend on competition; imperial power is the central force guiding the global political order. Order will always be needed, and empires will always be needed.
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| Journal Mission
*Political Forecasting and Insight* is an interdisciplinary academic journal dedicated to long-term political forecasting, long-cycle geopolitical research, theories of empire-building, the fundamental laws of warfare, and the profound connections between philosophical logic and the interplay of geopolitics, geography, and history. The journal emphasizes depth, foresight, and innovation in its content; it does not prioritize traditional academic formatting as the primary criterion for evaluation, but rather focuses on the originality of ideas, insight, and theoretical contributions. The journal pays particular attention to “outsiders” who possess political insight, philosophical intuition, and strategic thinking. Historical experience shows that many non-institutional researchers often achieve greater success in political forecasting and strategic judgment than large think tanks, national intelligence agencies, and policy-making systems. The journal is committed to discovering, presenting, and preserving these valuable intellectual achievements so that they are not lost. One of the journal’s founding objectives is to provide professional researchers, academic institutions, and policy analysts with a formal, citable publication, enabling relevant ideas, theories, and forecasts to be cited, disseminated, and retrieved in a standardized bibliographic format.
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| Transliteration of the name Ye Qiquan
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| Arabic | يي راعي الينبوع | Hebrew | יה צ’יקואן |
| Chinese | Ye Qiquan | Italian | Ye Chichen |
| German | Ye Tschi-Quan | Japanese | 葉 其泉（は きせん） |
| English | Ye Qiquan | Korean | 예 치천 (Ye Qiquan) |
| Spanish | Ye Chicuán | Russian | Е Чицюань |
| French | Ye Chiquan | ||
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