2- Weakness of Chinese tripartite political forces

2- Weakness of Chinese tripartite political forces
The Xi Jinping faction is currently the weaker party. The announcement on July 1, 2025, has already stripped Xi Jinping and his group of their final decision-making authority within the executive power system. The two significant victories on October 23, 2025, and January 24, 2026, did not remedy their strategic shortcomings. Unless they undergo a complete rebirth by February 2027, they will “slowly and systematically move toward their predetermined fate.” In this predetermined fate, only a very small number of members will be able to establish effective cooperation with the next ruling collective. The majority of members will enter a process of political decline. Some members will face severe political reprisals. In particular, Xi Jinping’s family, his maternal clan, and his wife’s family will suffer serious political retaliation.
However, this faction still retains the possibility of a complete rebirth.
The Chinese military is the primary force driving the political turmoil in China in 2025. Even though Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli have been cut off from their ties to the military, the military has only suffered a “tactical defeat.” They remain the primary force stabilizing China’s political landscape.
However, the shortcomings of the military and its leadership are severe. They have consistently overlooked the importance of “traditional authority” to them. This is not only the primary cause of Zhang Youxia’s failure but will also become a sword hanging over the heads of current military leaders.
The lack of leaders with top-tier political acumen is another major shortcoming of the military. Military leaders must clearly recognize that while they are the most powerful political force, they are also the most vulnerable in China’s political landscape. It is entirely possible that they will be unable to share in the fruits of victory; even worse scenarios could unfold. Specifically, they may be held “historically responsible” for this political upheaval.
Overall, China’s extra-mandate political forces currently represent the most powerful faction. They need only prevent the Xi Jinping faction from fully re-establishing itself before February 2027 to achieve their ultimate strategic goal: dominating the composition of the next Chinese power elite.
As a faction, China’s extra-mandate political forces are undoubtedly the most powerful. However, their current leaders are not “strong and invincible.” The possibility of their sudden political demise cannot be ruled out. Even worse scenarios could unfold. Namely, even if the Xi Jinping faction fails to fully re-establish itself by February 2027, they may still be unable to dictate the composition of the next ruling faction. In fact, not only might they fail to reap the fruits of victory, but they could also be cast aside by the next ruling faction and forced to bear the “historical responsibility” for the political turmoil of 2025.
Escape Plan from the Three-Way Political Dilemma
the holder of Auctoritas Caelestis
the military establishment
extra-mandate political force in China
Weaknesses and Strengths