Foreword to the Inaugural Issue of Political Forecasting and In-Depth Studies

The reason we included “A Retrospective on the Hong Kong Issue” in our inaugural issue was to demonstrate a point by revisiting political prophecies that have since been validated by history. That point is this: as long as one possesses the correct perspective and analytical methods, an individual can overcome the might of a powerful state apparatus.

As early as 2003, 2014, and 2019, Ye Chiquan very formally and seriously predicted that “the British, in their excessive pursuit of short-term gains, might bring about the premature end of Britain’s political presence in Hong Kong.”

Under the 50-year interim agreement reached between the Chinese and British governments, the British could have smoothly maintained their political, economic, and intelligence presence in Hong Kong until 2047. However, this political reality—which was supposed to endure smoothly—was brought to an early end on June 30, 2020. The British ended their political influence and the presence of their intelligence agencies in Hong Kong 27 years ahead of schedule. This outcome represents not only a major failure for British intelligence agencies, the British diplomatic system, and British policy-making bodies, but also a major failure for the relevant U.S. government agencies, as the Hong Kong policies of these two nations were jointly formulated by their respective state institutions.

Ye Chiquan sounded the alarm regarding this failure 17 years, 6 years, and 1 year in advance, respectively. This event fully demonstrates that gifted individuals can prevail over powerful state institutions in their areas of expertise. Ye Chiquan, the lead author of this inaugural issue, is one such genius.

Ye Chiquan not only made accurate predictions regarding Hong Kong but has also demonstrated his political acumen in at least the following areas.

1. He predicted that Xi Jinping was a political strongman at least six years before the entire Western political analysis community did
2. At the height of Xi Jinping’s authority, Ye Chiquan explicitly pointed out that Xi faced significant political risks
3. Ye Chiquan predicted Hu Jintao’s complete political failure at least ten years in advance. Furthermore, it is possible that the Xi Jinping faction’s “opportunity for a brief resurgence by the end of 2025” is also linked to Hu Jintao (this conjecture cannot currently be verified).
4. Although he did not formally predict Zhang Youxia’s downfall, Ye Chiquan did explicitly state in an email sent to Ministry of Foreign Affairs personnel in September 2025 that “military strongmen are prone to early demise.” He also noted that the military is both the most powerful force and the most vulnerable party.
5. Ye Chiquan’s political acumen is not limited to Chinese affairs. In April, May, and June 2022, he made a series of predictions. These included that the war would be protracted; that it would not end or reach an effective ceasefire before the end of 2026; that the Russians would not suffer a major defeat on the battlefield; that Ukraine would face “Yugoslavization” and “Somaliization”; Ukraine’s neighbors will intervene in the war, thereby escalating it into a full-scale European war; the war will be protracted and confined to the L1 and L2 lines delineated by Ye Chiquan; and the Russians will establish approximately seven local regimes on Ukrainian territory.