Political Forecasting and In-Depth Studies EN2026Vol1N2
The articles in Volume 1, Issue 2 of *Political Forecasting and In-Depth Studies* all focus on China. They include: an analysis of the background to China’s domestic political turmoil; the predicaments facing China’s three major political forces amid this turmoil; and concepts related to China’s process of empire-building.
This issue analyzes, from a unique perspective, how China’s three major political forces are currently all in a predicament. Xi Jinping leads China’s ruling faction. They still hold China’s celestial authority (Auctoritas Caelestis), which serves as the foundation for their self-preservation and even complete rebirth. If they fail to complete their rebirth by February 2027, they will calmly and methodically proceed toward their predetermined fate: a quiet demise and the anticipation of political judgment. A portion of them may enter the next leadership group, the majority will exit peacefully, and a segment will face severe political punishment. In particular, Xi Jinping’s family, his wife’s family, and his mother’s family will suffer severe political retaliation.
The Chinese military was originally the direct force that triggered the severe domestic turmoil in China in 2025. However, after Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were removed from the military in January 2026, the Chinese military temporarily entered a period of silence. But this does not mean the Chinese military has completely lost its capabilities. They remain independent of the Xi Jinping faction to this day. If the Xi Jinping faction fails to fully regroup by February 2027, the military leadership will be safe. However, the risk of their sudden political demise cannot be ruled out.
The true leaders of China’s extra-mandate political forces are currently unknown. The announcement on July 1, 2025, formally declared that they constitute China’s current true power structure. As long as they succeed in preventing the Xi Jinping faction from fully re-establishing itself by February 2027, they will be able to smoothly lead the formation of China’s 21st power faction. However, this faction clearly retains the style of Hu Jintao. The weakness of its leadership may undermine its overall capabilities. Given Xi Jinping’s exceptional political prowess, the current leaders of China’s extra-mandate political forces cannot rule out the risk of suddenly facing political demise.
Other points of interest in this issue include a substantial number of articles. These cover: the risks of Israel’s national and ethnic strategies; the risks the United States faces from China; the background of major powers’ policies toward Iran; potential pathways for Japan to shed its historical guilt and ascend to regional leadership; possible extreme governance scenarios following China’s unification of Taiwan; China’s policy toward Europe during the unification process; and changes to Hong Kong’s political system and administrative divisions after 2047.
